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Same general offensive line theme as my first simulation, where I matched the Jets with Penei Sewell like an alleged right tackle. This time my model gives Slater a slight advantage due to his versatility to play guard or tackle and be multiple right out of the gate. The Jets haven’t tackled their very needy O-line this offseason beyond adding C Dan Feeney. This choice at # 2 also reflects the positive addition of RB Tevin coleman, whose familiarity with the new OC Mike LaFleur Jets means the spaces Slater could clear would be even more valuable.
Here’s my strategy note: It makes sense to assume the Niners have some idea of what the Jets are up to and vice versa, especially given how many San Francisco coaches have just moved to Florham Park. This is nothing unfair or unusual – it would have been wise for the Dolphins to capitalize on this in their trade run for the No.3 – but it strongly indicates that QB is the chosen position here, and BYU Zach wilson is the most popular selection. That said, the general goal of this simulation is to maximize the potential of each team to win as many matches as possible in 2021. My model gives Sam darnold a 4.25 win share as a Jets starter in 2021, while Wilson adds 3.93 wins.
And hey, we’re in the thick of the draft draft season. You’ve all seen a million first round screenings with Wilson going to the Jets. So … what if they really stick with Darnold and take another path? An approach, I might add, that no one has definitely ruled out. What impact would that have on the first round as a whole? It’s a useful thinking exercise!
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