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About a month ago – heck, a week ago – there was conventional wisdom among hockey experts.
The Blue Jackets had to exchange either Artemi Panarin or Sergei Bobrovsky – or both – rather than losing them to free will at the end of the season.
Of course, at this point, it is known that the Blue Jackets have taken the opposite direction. Managing Director Jarmo Kekalainen and the Brain Trust go the other way, choosing to keep Panarin and Bobrovsky while adding Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, as well as Adam McQuaid and Keith Kinkaid.
For some, it's an incredible risk, especially since Duchene and Dzingel are unrestricted free agents themselves at the end of the season. For others, giving up on what the Jackets had abandoned – potential candidates Vitali Abramov and Jonathan Davidsson, as well as at least a first-round pick and two-round picks – was a reward. For others, the fact that the shots are good is a conditional proposition – if Columbus can not go beyond Tampa Bay and win the Stanley Cup, it will be for nothing.
But there are many reasons to say that the Blue Jackets have taken the most logical steps possible by the deadline. Here is an analysis of why.
UPDATING TRADE: Read all about the Jackets moves at the deadline
On Bobrovsky and Panarin: The assertion that the team had to treat these two players rather than losing them on July 1 lacks some major points.
First, the phrase "lose them for nothing" is a bit misleading. The Jackets will have received exactly what they asked Panarin and Bobrovsky – to play their contracts to the best of their abilities as two of the best players in the team.
Teammates and coaches have always congratulated the two teammates for playing the strongest of the season, and it would be hard to argue. Panarin is leading the scorers and Bobrovsky has conceded only 16 goals in his last nine starts. No less an authority than Cam Atkinson recently qualified the two best players on the team.
Video: Meet with Kekalainen on NHL Day for Trade
The acquisition of good players is all about winning matches, and the Blue Jackets have made the most of Bobrovsky and Panarin, regardless of what happens on July 1st. Bobrovsky has won the Vezina Trophy twice during his career with the Jackets. Panarin was acquired to give the team a decisive point in what appeared to be a two-year window for making noise in the post-season, and giving up this window halfway through would have been to undo all the meaning of the initial trade.
And if both leave after the season, Columbus will have close to $ 13.5 million of ceiling capped, money that the Blue Jackets can use on their own free agents and in the market.
There is also this reality: it would have been extremely difficult to reach an agreement that would be of benefit to Panarin or Bobrovsky, and Kekalainen stated, once the delay had elapsed, that no one had been about to make such an agreement. offer. The Blue Jackets would not give up for another season of battle for the playoffs. Any team interested in their acquisition would probably not have – and would not have wanted to – deliver assets that rival the two talented players, and each draft pick would have its own uncertainty, not to mention years. far from contributing.
Kekalainen said that he should be commended for reaching an agreement involving both. In the end, he was not and chose to run this season while he knew that he would have his services. If there was a moment to take a step forward aggressively, it was with these two players on the list.
Choice: Columbus is now short of project choices in the next three projects; the team currently only has two in its possession for the 2019 draft – a fourth-round pick and a seventh-round pick.
In 2020, a second round choice (negotiated for Dzingel) and a third round pick (negotiated a year ago for Ian Cole) have already disappeared and the first-round pick will go to Ottawa if Duchene signs again.
This is, of course, a lot of choice to make from the beginning of the drafts, and project choices are the cornerstone of any organization. But there are caveats.
First, with the Jackets playing to win this year, the choice of the first round to come will likely be in the second half and maybe even in the last third of the first round. Once you're out of the top 10 or 15 of any repechage, the talent drops and you make sure things are just not there. According to this analysis of TSN in 2017Any choice outside the Top 15 has more than a 50% chance of becoming a fourth-line player or worse.
Regarding the second round, think as follows: when you draw a second round, Ryan Dzingel is what you hope to have. The last six rounds of the repechage are so difficult that each individual choice has a low enough percentage to become an impact player. Remember that only 14 of this year's 44 stars were eliminated outside the first round. Getting a difference outside the first round does not happen a ton. It is therefore wise to use asset management to use Dzingel as a second choice.
Kekalainen also said that the Blue Jackets can come back and have draft picks in the future, if necessary.
"We obviously value the draft picks.The second round choices of 2020 and 21-21, you may have to wait until they materialize in your alignment in maybe the 24 or 25" .
"We want to win, we want to win, and although draft picks are valuable, we have some time to recover, we will work on them later, but by no means do these changes mean we do not They are valuable, but so are the players – we feel like they are worth it and we will take care of those choices later. "
The cabinet is solid: Many said that the exercise would be a failure if the Blue Jackets did not win the Stanley Cup and that players such as Panarin, Bobrovsky and maybe even Duchene and Dzingel left.
Time will tell what will happen as far as possible regarding the playoffs, but let's say that the Jackets end up being looted by independent agents. Even in this case, Kekalainen made it clear that he always felt pretty good about the depth of the Jackets, and it's easy to understand why.
Whatever happens, the Blue Jackets will still have control of the main Atkinson attackers, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Anderson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner and Nick Foligno, as well as defenders Seth Jones, David Savard, and Markus Nutivaara. Names like Eric Robinson, Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray and Joonas Korpisalo are also restricted free agents that Columbus will have a strong chance to sign again. Also signed for next year are Brandon Dubinsky, Alexander Wennberg, Riley Nash and Dean Kukan.
Kekalainen feels good about prospects such as Emil Bemstrom, Alexander Texier, Liam Foudy, Kole Sherwood, Kevin Stenlund, Vladislav Gavrikov, Andrew Peeke and Kirill Marchenko, as well as goalkeepers Elvis Merzlikins, Veini Vehvilainen and Daniil Tarasov. Names such as Sherwood, Stenlund, Foudy, Gavrikov and Merzlikins could contribute as early as next season. Kekalainen explained that his fellow managing directors often harassed him in an attempt to acquire Foudy, Bemstrom and Texier.
"One of the things that makes these exchanges possible is the strong depth map we have and the prospects that will be ready for the NHL as soon as possible, at least for what we value," Kekalainen said. "Time will tell if we are right or wrong, but we think we have very good prospects who are close to playing in the NHL, and no matter what happens in the future, we will have good young people players in our lineup ". We will be strong this spring and we will be strong next year too. "
Columbus, of course, has traded some future stability against current capacity. But the depth of the franchise is still in a strong position, no matter what happens.
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