Analysts See Oil Trade Closer To $ 70 Through Year End



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Oil analysts and economists believe that $ 70 a barrel is a more realistic outlook for Brent crude prices for the rest of the year than $ 80 oil, as COVID variants and the geopolitics of oil will continue to be a source of volatility in the market, the monthly Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Brent crude prices are expected to average $ 68.76 per barrel this year, said 38 analysts and economists who took part in the Reuters poll. The end-of-July forecast is higher than the June estimate in the same poll, where analysts predicted that crude Brent prices would average $ 67.48 per barrel in 2021.

So far this year, Brent prices have averaged $ 66.57 per barrel. Early Friday, the international benchmark traded at $ 76.21 at 9:30 a.m. EDT, up 0.21% on the day.

Analysts are not ruling out that Brent prices will rise above $ 80 and above in the coming months, according to the Reuters poll. But they generally do not think that this price would be sustainable because it would slow down the recovery in demand from price-sensitive oil importers. It would also provoke a reaction from the OPEC + producer group, which does not want oil prices to be so high that it would discourage buyers.

Carsten Menke, analyst at Julius Baer, ​​told Reuters:

“The rise and fall of COVID-19 waves will have more influence on sentiment than on supply and demand fundamentals during the rest of the year, as we no longer expect them to be. politicians impose harsh and widespread foreclosure measures. “

Analysts polled by Reuters believe that the global economic recovery and the return of Iranian barrels now very likely postponed to 2022, if at all, will support oil prices. However, the resurgence of COVID variants is expected to cap gains, even if governments should not impose scale blockages they made in the spring of 2020.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for OilUSD

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