Andrew Cashner and his theoretical maneuvers Home Run

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles concluded an exchange over the weekend. Baltimore sent pitcher Andrew Cashner to Boston in exchange for central field player Elio Prado and third baseman Noelberth Romero.

At 28-65, the Orioles seem likely to be eliminated from the playoff race during the month of August. Andrew Cashner is a free agent at the end of the season, and even if Baltimore had a less unlikely shot in the playoffs, it makes perfect sense to get something back for the right-hander as long as the situation is good . In this case, the organization has two very deep dives in the Red Sox organization. Prado and Romero are both 17 years old and come from Venezuela. At this point, neither player is at the top of the prospect radar. To take a few lottery choices, the Orioles agreed to pay half of Cashner's salary to the Red Sox, a figure slightly lower than $ 2 million. If either perspective proves useful, it will not be a new experience for Cashner, who has been replaced by Anthony Rizzo and Luis Castillo in previous transactions.

Cashner had a decent season on paper, but the return of the Orioles suggests that his skepticism reigns on his 3.93 ERA and 4.25 FIP. The difficulties in the Cashner peripherals in 2019 are at least enough for ZiPS to consider him a winning player. It's the same as for a fifth starter, and that's exactly what the Red Sox were looking for. This is not going to be a good thing in the playoff projections, but remember that the teams are no longer able to acquire a fourth and a fifth type of major leavers in August, which means means that teams need to be more careful about preparing for emergencies. And the throwers have a crowd of emergencies. Brian Johnson is currently absent for intestinal reasons. Since he's been away for weeks, it seems like it's a bit more serious than overeating spicy chilli. He threw some balls, but his visit to the IL creates some uncertainty, which is not a good state for a team in the running. And Cashner is probably a lower-than-average pitcher safer than Hector Velazquez.

Cashner had a somewhat odd career, usually struggling to eliminate the batters while he was not throwing 98 mph. Projecting his BABIP was a hilarious nightmare because he has not started a full season with a BABIP between 0.274 and 0.311. His .256 BABIP in 2019 is particularly disconcerting, as there is no practical reason for defense, with Baltimore at the bottom of the league, both in DRS and UZR. ZiPS is naturally suspicious and without sudden change in the characteristics of its change, I do not completely buy its improved results with this tone.

There is one thing Cashner has always done well for a less than average pitcher: keep the ball in the park. Cashner keeps the ball at the bottom without an explicit ground ball and so far, the hitter has struggled to get his ground low as they could, for example, Ivan Nova. That Cashner is about to allow less than 20 circuits in 2019 is not a coincidence.

To estimate the racing tables at home, ZiPS calculates something that I call zHR (I'll let you understand what Z means), which estimates the number of home runs that a "pitcher" would have should be allowed based on a variety of advanced data having a predictive relationship with home runs. Some of the most important factors are the output speed data, the traction trend, the flyball percentage and the fast ball speed. If you use only a one year mix of zHR rates and one year real HR rates to predict next year's return home rate, for launchers from 2002 to 2018, the best combination is obtained at 88% zHR and at 12% RH. Home runs are volatile, but not difficult to predict in the long run; they are a bit like the weather in this way. In the case of Andrew Cashner, he has 120.6 zHR career, against 122 authorized circuits. This measure also uses league and park factors as an input, to take into account changes in the environment.

Cashner's performance in these statistics improved in 2019 compared to 2018; his speed is on the rise, his players on the ground are on the rise and the batters have been less able to shoot the ball against him. ZiPS think Cashner should have allowed 11 homers this season instead of his 11 real circuits. When the road to the World Series will probably involve beating at least two Yankees, the Twins and the Astros, it's a useful skill to have.

For the League as a whole, the zHR can be calculated since 2002, when some of the necessary data became public. Below you will find the biggest results of a year ago and underperforming results expected.

As with BABIP, there seems to be a bit of a ceiling for the "ability" to pitch at home for fundamentally competent pitchers. Dan Straily has allowed 9.3% of the batters to hit a circuit this year, but even in this environment, it seems equally unlikely that Straily would have actually allocated 70 homers if he had been given 150 innings. Percentages above five percent of households seem extremely difficult, historically, to maintain.

As you can see from the list above, the vast majority of gifted and underachievers have subsequently allowed home totals much closer to what was expected.

In 2019, it's easy to understand why the Orioles are heading for an all-time record for authorized home racing, with pitcher personnel pitching to the unfortunate crossroads of the terrible and the unlucky.

Andrew Cashner's job is hardly a success, but in the end, both teams get what they want. ZiPS does not see this trade as a market that will fundamentally change the breed of AL East; The acquisition raised the percentage of playoffs in Boston from 55.8% to 56.1%. This is a useful gesture, but should not prevent Boston from getting a higher score before the trading deadline.