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by Brad Brevet
August 22, 2019
Another weekend and three months ago make their debut, making it come to life. Among this week's new releases, look for Lionsgate's Angel has Fallen to take the weekend's top spot. Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight's new thriller Ready or Not and Sony and AFFIRM's overcomer to look at a crop of movies, who knows, maybe Roadside's The Peanut Butter Falcon It will be expands to nearly one thousand rentals this weekend.
Looking for its first # 1 movie since John Wick 3 back in mid-May, Lionsgate is back with the third installment in yet another franchise, with the action-thriller Angel has Fallenin which Gerard Butler US Secret Service Agent Mike Banning. The film is the third in the Fallen franchise and studio expectations are for a start in the low to mid-teens from 3,286 rentals, which meshes with our current forecast. While the film was paced behind several comps late in the day, it was seen to be promising, but not enough. Butler's 2018 thriller Den of Thieves ($ 15.2m opening) 2018 action releases Peppermint ($ 13.4m opening) and Death Wish ($ 13m opening). In fact, the gains do not stop at $ 14 + million opening and a # 1 finish.
In the runner up position is last weekend's # 1 movie, Universal's R-rated comedy Good Boys, which not only outperformed expectations, but did so a "B +" score from 88% audience score on RottenTomatoes. This weekend we're expecting a drop -44% and a $ 12 million sophomore frame, pushing the film's domestic gross to $ 42 + million by the end of the weekend.
Universal should also be in third with Hobbs & Shaw, which we expect to be around -41% for a $ 8.3 million three-day, finishing the weekend with a $ 148 million domestic cume.
Next up is Disney's The Lion King, which just became the 14th movie $ 500 million domestically and is looking to add another $ 7 + million to that total this weekend. The end of the day Sunday the film will have grown to $ 510 million domestically, becoming the 13th highest grossing domestic release of all-time.
In a very crowded field, we're going with Sony Animation's The Angry Birds Movie 2 to round out the top five, which we expect to be around 50% or so and come up with a three day around $ 5.25 million for a domestic cume around $ 27 million by the end of the weekend.
Fox Searchlight's thriller is outside the top five Ready or Not. We started this year from $ 12 million, but after a $ 1.9 million opening day yesterday, which was a huge $ 730,000 in previews in its first five days. Working in its favor is a "B +" CinemaScore, which is strong for an R-rated thriller of this sort, and a stellar 90% rating at RottenTomatoes. However, right now, we can not go any higher than $ 5 million for a three-day performance and a five-day performance right around $ 9-10 million.
Additionally, Sony and AFFIRM's overcomer launches in 1,723 theaters this weekend with studio expectations right around $ 6 million. Kendrick Brothers, the film comes from faith-based filmmakers War Room $ 20 million in 2015. With this film, however, we've been having a hard time finding comps within the genre and target audiences as high as $ 6 million.
A look at IMDb page view data does not stop at a couple of days, but it is still The Young Messiah being one of the best in recent days, which is why we are anticipating a debut right around $ 4.5-5.5 million and a finish right on the edge of the top ten. Fandango.com reports the movie is outpacing Fox's Breakthrough in advanced ticket sales and that movie went to $ 11.2 million over the weekend as part of a five-day, $ 14.7 million debut. So may this one be outperforming our expectations.
In limited release, Amazon Studios will debut Brittany Runs at Marathon in five theaters in New York and Los Angeles, Roadside will release Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles into seven locations; and IFC will debut Vita and Virginia.
It's also worth noting, Roadside will expand the release of The Peanut Butter Falcon into 991 rentals (+939) as it enters its third week in release. The question here is whether this is going to perform more like Mumbai Hotel gold The Disaster Artist, both of which saw similar expansions and went on to deliver $ 3.3 million and $ 6.3 million weekends respectively. The difference will be in the top ten or just outside.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Sunday night preview.
- Angel has Fallen (3,286 theaters) – $ 14.5 M
- Good Boys (3,353 theaters) – $ 12.0 M
- Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (3,311 theaters) – $ 8.3M
- The Lion King (3,300 theaters) – $ 7.5 M
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3,869 theaters) – $ 5.2 M
- Ready or Not (2,855 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- overcomer (1,723 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2,209 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- Dora and the Lost City of Gold (2,843 theaters) – $ 5.0 M
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2,927 theaters) – $ 4.9 M
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