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A major and far-reaching heat wave is set to unfold across much of the Americas in the coming weeks, and it could be the largest in the country so far during this unusually hot summer, exacerbating drought and forest fires.
The big picture: Western forests are already burning to an unusual extent and intensity at this time of year. Drought data released Thursday showed what is already the worst Western drought to date this century is only getting worse. Any additional heat will worsen an already dire situation.
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The US Drought Monitor shows that 65.4% of the western United States is in “extreme” to “exceptional” drought conditions, the two worst categories on the scale, up from 52.8% on June 1 .
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The only modest relief in sight is in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada where the monsoon humidity will bring series of thunderstorms. These storms could also trigger new fires, delivering lightning but little rain in some areas.
Driving the news: A “thermal dome,” which is an area of high pressure aloft that helps lock in hot, dry weather, will form over the west over the weekend and eventually migrate to a position across the central plains.
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Computer models show temperatures are climbing 10 ° F to 15 ° F or more above average for this time of year in affected areas.
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It may not seem like a major event, but the end of July is right after what is usually the hottest time of the year, meaning temperatures will easily reach triple digits in parts of the Pacific Northwest. to the plains, parts of the Midwest and the east. United States (except Northeast).
And after: The heat will develop first in the Pacific Northwest and western Intermountain on Monday and extend east through Tuesday and Wednesday, when the thermal dome will be largely centered over Colorado and the Adjacent lowland states.
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Above-average temperatures are likely by Thursday from coast to coast, with warmer-than-average conditions occurring in the plains and Midwest, where some areas could see anomalies of 20 ° F above average.
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Cities like Des Moines, Minneapolis and Chicago will be on their way to the heatwave by the middle of next week.
Temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from July 28 to August 1 (NOAA)
How it works: While heat waves are a normal feature of summer, climate change from human-made greenhouse gas emissions is increasing in intensity, duration and frequency.
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For example, scientists concluded that the Pacific Northwest heat wave, which broke all-time heat records in dozens of places – including Seattle and Portland at 108 ° F and 115 ° F , respectively – was so severe that it was “virtually impossible” in the absence of global warming.
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This event will be the fifth distinct heat wave the United States has experienced so far this summer.
The context: Model projections show that the heat will not wear off quickly, but could last for much of August, as weather conditions pile up like cars on the Washington Beltway, going nowhere quickly.
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The stranded weather conditions with strong areas of high pressure aloft have been the cause of several deadly extreme weather events this summer, including the Pacific Northwest heat wave that is believed to have claimed hundreds of lives in the United States. and Canada, as well as the floods in central Europe that killed at least 200.
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Across much of the West, heat and drought will continue to feed each other in a vicious cycle, with warm temperatures further drying out the soils – allowing more solar radiation entering directly into the land. air heating.
The plot: Environmental groups hope this summer’s extreme weather events will move the lines of legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen the resilience of U.S. infrastructure.
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An event hosted on Thursday by environmental groups Climate Power and the League of Conservation Voters brought together a diverse group of people on Capitol Hill to convey that sense of urgency.
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Representative Sean Casten (D-Ill.), Who chose WGN-TV chief meteorologist Tom Skilling to speak at the event, told Axios on Thursday that the stories he was hearing this summer gave reflect and that they emphasized the need for the Senate. to “do their job”.
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“People are getting it now because it’s tangible and they can’t say, ‘Well that’s just a crazy science theory and prediction, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.’ , Casten told Axios.
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