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Precipitation has dropped disproportionately from Friday to Sunday in 2019 and will accumulate during the Mother's Day weekend.
The rainy part starts with thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. After a break on Saturday, rains are likely from Saturday evening to Sunday evening, although rain may again dissipate a bit during Mother's Day. The risk of showers can not leave until Tuesday.
In all, about two inches of rain could fall, and we can not exclude pockets of flood.
Storms expected Friday afternoon and evening, some strong
A cold front sweeping the area is expected to trigger thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Showers, lightning and gusts are possible in storms that develop.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Meteorological Service has areas west of Interstate 95 in its marginal risk zone of severe storms, which means that a few storms could trigger gusts of high winds at about 60 mph.
Due to the high levels of atmospheric humidity and the expected slowdown of some storms, we can not exclude isolated pockets of sudden floods.
It is possible that the storms take place in two turns: the first between 2 pm and 7 pm; and a second between about 19 hours. and midnight.
Storm dashboard
Approximate arrival time for storms:
- 14h to 17h, western areas
- 15h30 to 18h30, immediate area, including the district and the capital Beltway
- 5:00 pm to 8:00 pm, eastern areas of Interstate 95
(Note that a second series of scattered storms is possible between about 19:00 and midnight from west to east.)
Duration of the storm: about 45 minutes
Everything is clear: around 1 am
Risks of measurable precipitation anywhere: 60%
Storm movement: from north-west to south-east
Probable storm effects: heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds
Low risk of: damaging wind gusts, flash floods, small hail
Precipitation potential: very variable – on average 0.5 inches, but locally up to 1 to 2 inches
Saturday: Generally dry, but light rains may form in the afternoon.
It will probably rain less tomorrow at night. Saturday at least, he should stay dry. But then, the risks of light rain gradually increase from southwest to northeast, as the depression forms along a front wedged just to the south.
This can take until late Saturday in the afternoon or even in the evening so that continuous rain starts in the immediate area of Washington, but you can expect a gray sky and cool temperatures the afternoon in the 60s.
Of course, Saturday is your best bet for outdoor projects.
Saturday evening to Sunday evening: waves of rain, but a possible break
Starting late Saturday, low pressure waves will blow on the front, resulting in periods of rain that can be moderate to heavy at times.
It will not rain continuously, and some models suggest that the rain may subside or stop for part of the day on Sunday. So Sunday will not necessarily be a washout, but it will be wet and cool, with maximums just over 60.
If there is a break in the rain on Sunday, the models usually provide for a late start to the day or night. And even Monday could be disrupted with showers sometimes before the weather system finally leaves Tuesday.
Typical rainfall forecasts for Washington range from 1.5 to 3 inches until Monday morning (including Friday's storms). Here is their range of projections:
- NAM: 2.8 inches
- GFS: 1.3 inches
- Canadian: 1.4 inches
- European: 1.7 inches
If the high-end totals are correct, Washington will reach its average rainfall for the entire month of May less than half the month.
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