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This is where we entered. The phrase comes from the once common practice of audiences arriving late to a movie and then skipping the next screening until they catch up. (Strange, but true.) It’s fitting as we face a series of major films – nearly half of the studio release schedule through the end of April – pushing their dates back, yet again.
On January 21, James Bond moved five months; “No Time to Die” is now scheduled for October 8th. We are approaching the first anniversary of his first move last March, when he pushed from April to November. The reasoning remains the same: Eon Prods. exists almost entirely on this franchise. With production and marketing costs approaching $ 400 million, he needs theaters to function to their full potential. Late on January 22, Paramount announced the move of “A Quiet Place Part II”. Scheduled for April 23, it’s now September 17.
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Transforming and Unstable remains the new normal in theatrical distribution. As of this writing, there are only 10 studio titles until the end of April: five are from Warner Bros. (which play day and day with HBO Max) and one from Universal (with its now standard option to upgrade to Premium VOD in its fourth week.) These are more likely to stick around.
The other four – two from Lionsgate, one each from Disney and Sony – are less certain. Disney’s “Raya and the Last Dragon”, scheduled for March 5, could be next to go; it may have too much potential to stay on that date or as a theatrical exclusive.
Summer blockbusters traditionally begin their rollout in May, and for now we’ve got “Black Widow” on May 7 and “F9” on May 28. Each could be worth up to $ 1 billion gross, but they’re unlikely to keep those dates. “No Time to Die,” “The King’s Men,” “Ghostbusters: After Life” and “A Quiet Place Part II” – the four most anticipated movies of this week’s many changes – all reset for August and beyond. Sony has also moved its video game adaptation “Uncharted” starring Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg from July to February 2022.
For theaters, there’s good news as none of these changes involve the switch to streaming or VOD playback. (“A Quiet Place Part II” might have been a tempting option for Paramount’s upcoming streaming platform.) One exception: Netflix bought the worldwide rights to “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” from Sony Animation. Another animated film, “Bob’s Burgers” – a Disney title inherited from its acquisition of Fox – went from March to undated, suggesting the possibility of it landing on Disney +.
Warner Bros. is both a hero and a villain for placing their entire 2021 release schedule on HBO Max day and date. Any anger over the one-sided move was seen as a direct attack on theaters, but it is now the main studio provider for the first half of the year. The upper chains quietly recognize this reality; AMC and Cinemark are now selling tickets for Warners’ Jan. 29 Denzel Washington vehicle, “The Little Things.”
The rules are changing. Cinemark now plays the Netflix title “The White Tiger” and has previously played “One Night in Miami” from Amazon. A year ago, it was unthinkable.
None of this is the last word, and no one should believe that the date change is over. The major theater chains are all publicly traded and have survival strategies; the Save Our Screens aid program adopted by Congress last month will keep many small businesses afloat. Theaters have a post-pandemic future, but they are increasingly likely to play a lesser role in the presentation of feature films. The clearest indication: A year ago, this week’s announcements would have seemed apocalyptic. Today is business as usual.
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