Apple is betting on streaming. Here is who wins and who loses.

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Apple

announced its plans for enhanced streaming services, which should be unveiled Monday. But analysts are already trying to figure out who could be the biggest and biggest loser of the ad.

The reports have hinted at the details of what the event could bring, but Apple held his cards against his chest. He did not answer a question Barron's request for more information.

The story back. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Matthew Thornton In a note sent to customers on Thursday, he said he expects Apple to release a streaming service that includes third-party content as well as its own broadcasts. Thornton notes that Starz and Showtime would be on board. The company has also signed contracts with Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey, among others, for Apple's own content.

Although Apple has previously proposed its own streaming TV shows, the new service is a more important step and could also affect other companies.

What's up. Thornton sees
Lions Gate Entertainment

(LGF.B) among the biggest winners of the Apple service. The Starz premium cable channel accounts for approximately 65% ​​of Lions Gate's profits, and an agreement with Apple could help the channel reach many new listeners. Starz refused to say if it will be on the platform.

Competitive pressure is not a big thing for
Netflix

(NFLX), but Thornton expects its impact to be relatively minor. "According to our current position, we do not expect any significant impact for Netflix," he wrote.

This could also be a minor negative for Spotify (SPOT), but only if Apple connects the video offering to its music offering, Thornton said. "If Apple were providing Apple Music with video subscriptions and news subscriptions, that would be an additional negative for Spotify," he wrote. "From where we are today, we expect any impact to be manageable."

The impact on
Roku (ROKU)

varies greatly depending on whether or not Apple offers the Roku channel to its new service and whether Roku offers the Apple app. If companies end up competing with each other, Thornton estimates that this is a "small negative increase, with Apple competing with revenue from content distribution (for example, a person signing up for Starz or Showtime via Apple does not does not subscribe to these services via Roku) ".

Look forward. Unlike Apple's mobile ads, this event seems less likely to change the game. Apple is not a dominant player in streaming, and its previous shows have largely been duds. Any impact is likely to be played over a longer period.

It probably does not make sense to buy or sell stocks based solely on the fear or excitement of Apple streaming.

Write to Avi Salzman at [email protected]