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This week we wanted to take a look at NFC East, the most unpredictable division in football. When I lived in Florida they would say, “If you don’t like the weather, wait 10 minutes. The NFC East is the Florida weather for the NFL divisions. There is no geographically grouped NFL quartet that lends itself better to overreacting week to week.
Week 2 began with a classically ridiculous clash with the NFC East, with Washington beating the Giants when he missed a timeless winning basket, but the Giants jumped offside and pulled off their second chance. This improved the reigning division champions’ record to 1-1 and brought the Giants down to their usual 0-2.
Then on Sunday the Eagles lost to the 49ers and the Cowboys beat the Chargers on their own last-second field goal, and the standings are just as they’re supposed to – three teams tied 1-1 and the other just one. game back. On course to crown a 9-8 or 8-9 Division champion everyone will complain about shouldn’t have a home playoff game.
Due to my longtime affinity for NFC East and all of its extremely unpredictable quirks, I wanted to start the Week 2 overreaction chronicle with this one, which will surely inspire some sort of backlash:
Cowboys are NFC East favorites again
At the start of Sunday, the Cowboys were 0-1 but were already favored by ESPN’s Football Power Index with a 43.2% chance of winning the division. (The Eagles, the only team in the division to win in Week 1, were second at 30.9%.) The Cowboys won on Sunday, the Eagles lost and the other two teams did not play, so you have to understand that REIT loves Dallas’ even better odds now.
The Cowboys survived a series of extremely bad and potentially catastrophic clock management decisions and won on a 56-yard last-second field goal by Greg Zuerlein – 10 days after losing to defending champion Buccaneers on a field goal of last second. They could easily be 2-0 or 0-2 or 0-1-1… they’re a high-flying act so far this season, but they’ve played pretty well.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Before saying anything: Try to understand that I am not saying they are the favorites in the division. I’m saying it’s not an overreaction to say they’re the favorites, because it wouldn’t be overreacting to say that about Washington or Philadelphia, either. Maybe even the Giants, but it’s been so long since the Giants have been good that I find it hard to give them the benefit of the doubt.
The point is, if you thought before the season that the Cowboys would win the division and watched their first two games, you probably still think so. DeMarcus Lawrence’s injury and La’el Collins’ suspension are both damaging and will likely cost them games. But it didn’t cost them Sunday’s game, and the Cowboys are 1-0 without those guys. Walk the water until they come back, steal another game here or there, beat the other teams in the division, and they could be in a strong position for a big final in December and January.
Some teams have to win this thing, and Dallas has the best quarterback. If you want to crown them, like Dennis Green said, then crown them. Just be prepared to change your mind eight or ten times before the season ends.
Mac Jones to win Offensive Rookie of the Year award
Jones had 22 for 30 with passes for 186 yards in the Patriots’ 25-6 win over the Jets on Sunday. Not exactly mind-blowing numbers, especially considering it’s just 18 more assists than Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, a rookie, supplemented by Patriots members. Jones did not throw a touchdown pass or an interception.
It was a game in which the Patriots didn’t have to do too much work, as the Jets – who flipped it four times – were doing the work for them. New England only had 260 total attacking yards, and that was more than they needed. In his first two career games, however, Jones completed 73.9% of his passes and made no pick.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. That price tends to lean towards the quarterfinals, and if the Patriots have a good team and Jones spends the season keeping the ball out of trouble, he absolutely could win it. The quarterbacks that would be its direct competitors are not off to a good start. Wilson had a brutal day on Sunday. Justin Fields hasn’t shown a ton of relief for injured Andy Dalton in Chicago. The Trevor Lawrence Jaguars totaled 189 yards on offense. Trey Lance watched the 49ers game from the bench.
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Jets QB Zach Wilson is having a miserable day in his opener against the Patriots, throwing four interceptions.
But the price does have go to a quarterback. Joe Burrow appears interested in helping wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase compete for the award in Cincinnati, finding him for touchdowns in two straight weeks. Kyler Murray seems interested in doing the same for Rondale Moore in Arizona. (Moore scored a 77-yard touchdown on Sunday.) A long way to go here. Jones was solid but not spectacular. He’s set for success, but early returns indicate the Patriots may not be asking enough of him to allow for, say, the numbers Justin Herbert posted last season.
Tom Brady is about to have his best season ever
A week after making four touchdown passes in the season opener against Dallas, the 44-year-old Buccaneers quarterback threw five in a win over Atlanta. That, for all the non-math majors, makes nine overall and puts Brady on pace to throw 77 touchdown passes this season, which would be a record. I looked for it. He has 17 touchdown passes in his last four games (including the playoffs), tied for his most in four games.
Yep, Brady is 44, and nobody’s done that sort of thing at that age. But no one had ever done what he did last year at 43 until he did, so it’s not like you just have to instinctively bet against him. His wide receiver body is stacked up, his best friend Rob Gronkowski is rejuvenated and grabbing touchdowns, and Brady looks set to do just about anything he wants to do.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Brady’s career-high passing yards is 5,235, set in 2011. His career-high touchdown pass is 50, set in 2007. He ended both seasons losing the Super Bowl to the Giants. , so It is I’m not going to tell you it was his best season ever. When I was covering the Yankees we would ask Derek Jeter what kind of season he thought he had and he would always respond by saying, “Did we win the World Series? The implication was that, if the answer was no, he didn’t have the year he wanted.
Brady looks similar in that regard, so he’s unlikely to rate his season at 44 as his best unless the Bucs repeat as champions. But they certainly look good enough to do it, first of all, and in terms of individual performance he’s way ahead of what he was around this time last season when he was new to town and he there had been no real offseason.
The question we can’t answer about Brady at 44 is whether he can last a whole 17-game season. So there is a lot of uncharted territory involved. But if you’ve watched Brady for two decades, you probably think he’s capable of anything. A huge year, even by his criteria, is by no means out of the question.
Jon Gruden and the Raiders finally figured it out
Las Vegas flew over the country for a short week and hung 26 points on the Steelers’ (admittedly broken) defense. Year 4 of the Jon Gruden Raiders’ second era started 2-0, which is no small feat considering they didn’t finish over 0.500 in any of the top three. The victories came against perennial contenders Baltimore and Pittsburgh, making it the first time the Raiders have started 2-0 with wins against teams that made the playoffs the previous season.
Their next six games don’t seem too intimidating heading into their first Chiefs game of the year in Week 10. The young and talented pass-catchers of quarterback Derek Carr seem to be coming of age together, and it looks as good as ever has. It’s possible it only took four years for the whole project to click, right?
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Derek Carr connects on the home run to Henry Ruggs III to increase the Raiders’ lead.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. We’re going to wait a while to anoint the Raiders as Super Bowl contenders. They started 2-0 last season, beat the Chiefs in Week 5, and broke their record at 6-3 before losing five of their last seven and collapsing right out of the playoffs. During Gruden’s current tenure, the Raiders are 7-6 in September games, 2-7 in October games, 7-6 in November games, and 5-10 in December games. January. If you want to stay skeptical until you see them last through the season and get off to a good start, I’m here with you.
In particular, I will buy that Carr is better than most people often like to assume and the group around him is very talented (even, as was the case on Sunday, without starting to run backwards Josh Jacobs). But the main thing I would like to see from the Raiders over the next few weeks is that their defense starts to look like an always formidable unit. A good start, of course, but there is more to be done than ever before whether it will finally be more than that.
The Steelers offense is a major problem
Pittsburgh scored 17 points and 331 offensive yards in Sunday’s loss to the Raiders. A week earlier, he had just 252 yards and 23 points in a win over Buffalo. (One of his touchdowns in that game came from a blocked punt.) The revised offensive line so far hasn’t looked much better than last year’s unit. (It didn’t help that Trai Turner was kicked out for spitting at the other team.) New offensive coordinator Matt Canada was supposed to have spiced up this operation with a bunch of fun pre-engagement movement concepts, but until ‘Now the Steelers offense seems stuck in the mud.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Line issues have crushed them in the final weeks of the 2020 season, so the Steelers know what can happen if they don’t fix things up front. While they’re doing this, part of the plan was to let their defense dominate and stay in games that way. But injuries kept several key defensive players, including Devin Bush, TJ Watt and Tyson Alualu, sidelined for all or most of Sunday’s game, and Derek Carr and the Raiders shined them on.
If the defense fails to recover, the Steelers may not be able to get through the build-up phase of this offensive retooling. And if this phase takes longer than expected, they might end up falling behind for a long time.
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