1972 scientific prediction of humanity’s ‘collapse’ in 2040 comes to life

In 1972, a team of scientists from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predicted through a computer program that continued economic growth without considering environmental costs would lead humanity to collapse in the middle of the 21st century.

Now, with the world in the midst of its fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, a new study has found that these 1973 predictions could become a reality if humanity does not act immediately.

“Around 2020, the state of the planet becomes very critical. If we do nothing, the quality of life is reduced to zero “Jerry Foster, one of the scientists at MIT, said in a 1973 television interview when the results of his study were released.

Foster and his team of scientists at MIT met in 1972 to study the risks of civilizations collapsing.

His model of system dynamics identified imminent “limits to growth”Economical (LtG) which meant that collapse of industrial civilizationwas going to somewhere in the 21st century, around 2040, due to overexploitation of natural resources.

MIT’s controversial analysis sparked heated debate and was widely ridiculed at the time by scientists who distorted its findings and methods.

40 years later, another study proves him right

Almost 40 years later, Gaya Herrington, responsible dynamic systems and sustainability analysis at KPMG, set out to prove or disprove MIT’s claims and used a global simulation model that examined how our world has progressed since 1972.

Herrington analyzed 10 key variables, such as population, industrial production and persistent pollution, and determined that our entrepreneurial spirit will, as always, lead to slower economic growth in the 2030s.

The study was published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in November 2020 and is available on the KPMG website.

Herrington data further revealed a future again darker for Humanity: By 2040, the world could experience a total social collapse due to the sharp decline in quality of life, food production, industrial production and, ultimately, human population.

1972: “Lcivilized life as we know it will cease to exist “

MIT made its prediction using a computer program called “World1“And, going back to 1900, have published forecasts up to the year 2060. The data obtained and published by the Club of Rome, showed how the population increased from 1900 until the turn of the century. The line starts low and then rises until a few years after 2000, when it runs out.

Another datum that the 1972 computer showed was quality of life, which increased rapidly until the 1940s and then declined until 2020, when another peak was recorded. However, the model also identified 2020 as a turning point for civilization.

“The pollution is getting so bad that it will start killing people, which in turn will cause the population to decline, less than it was in 1900. At this point, around 2040 to 2050, civilized life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist ”, predicts Foster following the results of World1.

2030-2040: an unprecedented deterioration in the quality of life

Herrington used the same model, but the third version of the simulation called World3, and analyzed 10 key variables: population, fertility rate, death rate, industrial production, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, well -To be human. . , and the ecological footprint.

Their study found that the most recent data most closely matched two particular scenarios: “BAU2” (business as usual) y “CT” (complete technology), which “show a stop in growth within ten years”.

The data obtained predict a “slowdown” and a possible “stop of growth” over the next decade, but World3 leaves the end open on whether all of this will amount to a collapse of human civilization.

Gaya Herrington, says that in the models of MIT World3, the collapse “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist”, but that “Economic and industrial growth will stop and then decline, harming food production and living standards”.

“Changing our social priorities must not be a capitulation to an overwhelming need,” Herrington said at the World Economic Forum in 2020.

“Changing our social priorities should not be a capitulation to an imperative need,” Herrington said at the World Economic Forum in 2020, as quoted by Vice.

And I add: “Human activity can be regenerative and our productive capacities can be transformed. In fact, we are seeing examples of what is happening right now. The expansion of these efforts now creates a world full of opportunity that is also sustainable. “

Herrington highlighted how the rapid development of vaccines and the unprecedented global deployment of vaccination in response to the Covid-19 pandemic shows that humanity is able to respond quickly and constructively to global challenges if they so choose.

“The necessary changes will not be easy and will pose transition challenges, but a sustainable and inclusive future is still possible ”, Herrington said.

Although the 1972 simulation suggests that mankind is doomed to total failure, Herrington’s study gives hope: “Technological progress and greater investment in public services could take us away from collapse. “. However, human beings will still have to make a great effort to change the course of history.