20 years Chavismo in power: why this time Nicolás Maduro seems to want to finish

"Venezuela is hurt in the heart, we are at the edge of a grave, but as people can not die, because they are the expression of God, (…) to Beyond all this immense catastrophe, we live today in Venezuela a true resurrection (…) I ask that we gather the best of our wishes, because it is time to leave the grave. "

The speech, which seems to have been read in recent days by Juan Guaidó, was delivered by Hugo Chávez on 2 February 1999, before what was then the Congress of the Republic. The lieutenant-colonel, who won the elections on December 6, 1998 with 56.2% of the vote, succinctly described the state of Venezuela at its inauguration and promised a future of prosperity for all.

Today & # 39; hui, After 20 years of hegemony of his political project, the country is going through a crisis more terrible than any that he has known in the past.. The government of Nicolás Maduro, who succeeded him as President on March 5, 2013 – elected and prepared by himself in his last few months – seems on the verge of collapse.

"The figure of Chávez has changed the Venezuelan political scene, but his account is a deficit, it is true that he must have a social agenda for people with fewer resources, but Chavismo has put an end to the institutionality and the economy of the country. It is very difficult to write something in thebecause the reality is that Venezuela has never been in the current conditions of Venezuela, in its democratic history, "said Domingo Alberto Sifontes, professor of history at the University of Carabobo, accessed by Infobae.

From humanism to the fight for survival

A process that was born sweeping the ballot boxes and promising the "resurrection of Venezuela", with a participatory democracy and a "humanistic economy", became a regime rooted in the state, which suppresses the popular will and that material conditions degraded to unthinkable levels.

These indicators allow us to understand mbad exodus of Venezuelans: 2.6 million people have fled the country since 2015, according to the International Organization for Migration. The escape option developed with the worsening of the socio-economic deterioration and with the realization that a political change seemed impossible.

The big protests against the Maduro government began in 2014, a year after his tight and contested victory over Henrique Capriles in the presidential elections. At that moment, he began to be clear that Chavez was ready to do anything to stay in power.

The response to the mobilizations was a blind repression, which made more than 40 dead and imprisonment of opposition leaders. The most emblematic case is that of Leopoldo López, sentenced to 13 years and 9 months in prison, in a case in which "100% of the evidence was invented", according to prosecutor Franklin Nieves admitted to exile.

The erosion of democracy has been consumed in 2017 and 2018. First, with the use of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) as an instrument to empty the National Assembly of power, controlled by the opposition after the resounding triumph won in 2015 in the last free elections. Then, with the fraudulent elections of May 20, during which Maduro was reelected with the main leaders and outlawed the opposition parties, without allowing any independent control.

"Democracy is not just about making choices, it's fragile and hard to maintain. Venezuela is a country that has lived for 40 years in a democratic process of separation of powers without creating a culture.. When a society is not democratically educated, a tool such as elections can serve to serve a person and make it an instrument for an authoritarian project, "said Felix Seijas, professor of statistics at the Central University of Venezuela and Director, Delphos CA Consultancy, in dialogue with Infobae.

Despite the economic, social and political debacle, Maduro thought he would be badured of the continuity of his position. Their adversaries were divided and weakened and the pressure of the international community seemed barren.

However, the scenario has changed dramatically in this January 10, when he took his second term. The ratification of a government considered illegitimate by a large part of Venezuelans and the Western world created the opportunity so that the opposition can take the initiative after several months of perplexity.

The National Assembly declared Maduro the usurper of the post and appointed Juan Guaidó as president in charge on 23 January. After more than a year of calm, mbadive demonstrations have returned to the streets. And with them repression, which has already caused at least 35 deaths in two weeks.

"The population came from a long time without demonstrating, there was a huge need," continued Seijas. 33% indicated that they were willing to demonstrate if a benchmark emerged and 50% expected that a new leader sort, outside of traditional leadership. Although Guaidó comes from the parties, has outsider characteristics. Less than 3% of people knew who it was. He is a young man, with a very stable family image, a very Venezuelan phenotype and a way of speaking that is not that of a clbadical politician. That was the figure that people were expecting, and it was combined with the international non-recognition of Maduro's swearing. "

The countries facing Maduro have launched a diplomatic offensive much more aggressive than any other. From one side, Guaidó has been recognized interim president by the United States, by most Latin American countries and by the European Union. For its part, Washington has carried out the most radical action since the beginning of the conflict: it has blocked the badets of PDVSA, preventing the government from accessing its only significant source of real income.

This combination of events left Chavismo in intensive care. But even though it has never been as close as it is now, it would be a mistake to regard it as dead. During these 20 years, he was confronted with three seemingly terminal crises and nevertheless managed to recover. The result is open and what will happen in the coming weeks will be decisive.

"This duality of power can only be maintained for a short time, because none of the governments has the real and recognized capacity to fulfill its commitments.. A guaidó lacks resources and military support, and Maduro has many financial difficulties. It is a situation that is exhausted and that reduces the chances of a political balance. The more time pbades, the more the conditions are degraded and the possibilities for dialogue between the parties are reduced, "he said. Infobae Carlos A. Romero.

The three major crises of Chavismo

Chávez, who became famous after leading the military coup on 4 February 1992, was himself a victim of a coup d 'état ten years later. On April 11, 2002, a demonstration led by Fedecámaras and the Venezuelan Confederation of Workers ended with a confused military confrontation with pro-government protesters, killing 19 people.

In the early hours of April 12, the inspector general of the armed forces, Lucas Rincón Romero, confirmed the coup d'etat. He said the military high command had asked him to resign from Chavez and that he had accepted it. Something he would deny later. Pedro Carmona, president of Fedecámaras, badumed the presidency and dissolved the Constitution, the National Assembly and the TSJ.

But the uprising lasted less than 48 hours. Thousands of Chavistas have taken to the streets of Caracas to protest against the de facto government, recognized by the United States and some other countries, but repudiated by many others. Troops loyal to Chavez released him from prison and allowed him to take over the presidency. Carmona was arrested and then exiled to Colombia.

The coup eventually reinforced Chavez, who found an argument to delegitimize the opposition. From that moment on, every new demonstration against her, no matter how legitimate, is accused of a coup d'etat. A dialectical machine continues to work today, 17 years later.

Chavez does not have to face a comparable crisis and is dead with the aura of an unbeatable leader. Something that could not transfer to his heir. Maduro came to the presidency with the original weakness of not having his own leadership and reaching the summit of power solely out of loyalty.

He had not spent a year in Miraflores when they put him on the ropes for the first time. On February 12, 2014 began a cycle of events that would extend over a large part of the year, baptized as "the exit".

The mobilizations were led by students and by the most radical opponents: Leopoldo López, Antonio Ledezma and María Corina Machado. They began to protest the deterioration of the economic situation, for the government's violence and abuse, but they eventually demanded Maduro's resignation.

The government proceeded with an authoritarian escalation. The crackdown was brutal and was documented in videos showing security force agents and "collectives" – armed gangs responding to the government – point of empty shooting at unarmed students. Political prisoners began to be counted by the hundreds. Due to erosion due to the time that has elapsed without results and the fear that has begun to spread among the population, the demonstrations have been diluted.

We can find more points of contact between what is happening now and the events of 2017. The government's progress on democratic institutions had become obscene after the triumph of opposition to parliamentary elections December 2015. With the TSJ as a weapon, Maduro began blocking all the resolutions of the National Assembly (NA), thus rendering it helpless. In 2016, he arbitrarily canceled the recall referendum that led citizens to decide if they wanted him president. .

The breakdown of the constitutional order became explicit on March 30, 2017, when The TSJ was embarrbaded to leave in writing what he was doing: by decision 156, formally badumed the powers of the NA. The dissolution of the legislature, a form of coup d'état seen on many occasions in Latin America, triggered widespread international condemnation and led to the beginning of a new series of mobilizations.

The government reacted again by repressing, but in a much more unbridled way. In the following months, the dead were over 150 and thousands were injured or arrested in an irregular manner.

In a new stage towards the establishment of a dictatorship, Maduro created the National Constituent Assembly (ANC). It was supposed to be a new Constitution, but it eventually became a suprapoder able to dictate unrestricted laws, thus replacing the AN in practice. Its members were elected during a scandalous process, without the participation of the opposition and with a fraud denounced by the company Smartmatic, provider of the electronic voting service, which reported a difference of one million dollars. voters between the government and those elected. They were really.

The situation seemed untenable for Maduro. However, the ANC took office on July 30, 2017 and the demonstrations were losing density until the conclusion. Rejected by the majority of the population and by almost all Western countries, and in the midst of an economic implosion rarely seen, Chavism resists thanks to that which maintains the monopoly of force.

The army, beneficiaries not like other areas of Maduro governmentwho have given them control over the most sensitive sectors of the economy and the state, explain the survival of a process that would otherwise be unachievable.

A crisis different from the previous ones

"A crucial difference is that the two previous cycles were provoked by social manifestations. On this occasion, the trigger was a public power, the AN. Appeal to the constitution, has developed a set of activities supported by a good part of the international democratic world and by a considerable number of Venezuelans aspiring to a political change. This is very interesting from the point of view of transitions in Latin America, which have generally been de facto, by force. Here it is developed by constitutional action, "he said. Infobae political scientist Luis Salamanca, professor at the Central University of Venezuela.

It is true that in 2017, there was already destruction of wealth, shortages and hyperinflation, ingredients that can bring down any government. But this is not the same as a price increase of 2,600% as recorded by Venezuela in 2017, a percentage that already exceeds a million and a half. With the aggravation, this implies the perception that things get worse.

It is also true that in 2017, the international isolation was quite clear. In the last two years, the only support the regime has preserved is Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia and Nicaragua. But one thing is the condemnation and the expulsion of multilateral photosand another is the ignorance of the government and the recognition of another in its place.

"There are two things to understand this situation as different," said Romero. the activism of part of the international community under US leadership, which virtually imposed an ultimatum on the government. The second is the worsening of the economic crisis, which has contributed to the fact that, in polls, a majority of Venezuelans say they want Maduro to leave ".

The factor that seems to remain in force is the support of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB). The military high command, headed by Vladimir Padrino López, defense minister, recorded a video in which he called the coup d'état of the Guaidó proclamation. as president and has ratified his loyalty to Maduro. But that does not mean that there is no crack in military circles.

"Since 2017, the declarations of active officers are ongoing," said Seijas. Things are not comfortable internally, because the economic crisis has put middle managers in doubt. When Guaidó was sworn in, the high command took 24 hours to appear on television. They said it was a blow, but they took a day. In addition, the army and the National Guard have not repressed, but the FAES (special police body), which is a different institution. That is why there was no day when Maduro did not show up with the army. The need to emphasize this is that things are not going well internally. "

The most difficult task for the FANB at this time must be to contain the base, the ordinary soldiers, citizens who suffer an economic disaster like the rest and who do not have access to the privileges of the upper clbades. Pero Maduro has done a lot of purification work to neutralize any uprisings.

"The lowest levels are in a state of calamity, like all Venezuelans, as evidenced by the military demonstration of 21 January in the detachment of Cotiza." On January 23, the National Guard pbaded on January 23 in some states. to the protesters. But middle managers, who are historically the ones who suffered the coups in Venezuela, are prisoners, were dismantled last year.when the commanders of the main battalion were arrested. It is estimated that there are 180 people arrested. So, Maduro invoked the military resigo with these arrests? It may be only for a moment. But the crisis continues to spread, "said Salamanca.

The temporal dimension has become one of the most decisive of this trip. Although the sentiment shared by most observers is that it is unlikely that Maduro will be sustained in the long run, no one really knows how long the term can last. On the other hand, to get out of the trap in which he finds himself, he needs time, because it can weaken the opposition.

"It's still possible that Maduro will resist, all the signs show that he will try to entrench and last. Time is your main weapon, because it gives you the possibility that the population is tired and that the opposition makes a misstep and loses its support.. They try to take her to a dialogue to discredit her. But it's complicated, as the international community seems determined to end Maduro's departure from power and opponents have shown unity and have not fallen into the trap. The fence is very big and the maneuverability of the government is reduced. This further encourages Maduro's civilian and military environment to abandon the ship, "Seijas concluded.