Argentina and the pandemic: a global study places it among the worst countries in terms of recession, containment and deaths

In the global pandemic, Argentina has been placed in the “group of death”, with the worst health and economic indices, according to a study comparing the evolution of key indicators since the emergence of covid-19, more than a year ago.

To make a correct measurement, economists Marcos Ochoa Yes Maximiliano Albornoz from the Center for Structural Change Studies (CECE) and UNLZ-Economics carried out the study: “Economic and health impact in Argentina and in the world”, four relevant variables were used: decrease in GDP, the containment severity index, deaths per million inhabitants and vaccinated as a proportion of the population.

By analyzing this data in this study which ended in April, “we can see that Argentina is in the four worst places indicators, forming a group with Peru and Panama, after taking a representative sample of 123 countries”. Then there is Iraq, Colombia and the Bahamas in two categories, while “Great Britain, Spain and Chile meet only one category”.

“Of the nine countries in difficulty, six belong to Latin America, two to Europe and one to Asia,” said the authors of the report. In addition, they pointed out that “In Argentina’s case, the strong containment did not reduce deaths, which were even higher compared to countries with different strategies (like Brazil) and slightly lower compared to the United States.”

Argentina’s long lockdown did not reduce deaths, which were even higher compared to countries with very different strategies like Brazil and the United States

“If the goal were to minimize the loss of life, the goal would not have been reached: Argentina is part of the group of countries with the highest number of deaths, once normalized by the size of the population “.

In this regard, economists have pointed out that “at the start of the second wave of covid-19, in Latin America in general and Argentina in particular, the proportion of the vaccinated population is very low compared to other countries, like Great Britain, Spain or Chile, that they did a better planning and negotiation of vaccines before the laboratories ”.

In other words, “whatever the four indicators analyzed in this study, Argentina ranked as one of the worst countries in the world facing the treatment of the covid pandemic19 “. In particular, in 2020, the decline in GDP “doubled the average contraction of the selected countries; deaths per million inhabitants tripled the average and the containment severity index was 40% above average ”.

“If countries with a sharp drop in GDP (greater than 9.09%) are analyzed, there were nations with similar declines in economic activity, but with weaker containments, as was the case with the Great -Brittany and Spain. Therefore, “with less severe confinements, they had similar falls.”

“If we analyze the countries with high lockdowns (above 79.61), we can see that there were nations like Chile, Colombia and Bolivia, which recorded minor declines in GDP.”

“If we analyze the countries with high containments (above 79.61), we can see that there were nations like Chile, Colombia and Bolivia, which recorded minor declines in GDP” ( Ochoa and Albornoz)

Regarding the relationship between deaths per million inhabitants and the Oxford University containment severity index, “Argentina is in the most negative zone” of the groups of countries analyzed.

In the sector with the greatest number of countries with rates of confinement (less than 79.61) and moderate or low deaths per million inhabitants (less than 830.34), are found the Most of the countries, like Sweden, Poland, Ecuador, Canada, Russia. , Paraguay, Greece, Japan and Germany, among others.

En el cuadrante de los países con confinamientos moderados o bajos (debajo de 79,61) y alta cantidad de muertes por millón de inhabitants (mayor a 830,34), están Estados Unidos, Brasil, Gran Bretaña, Italia, España y Francia, among others.

In the subgroup with low deaths per million population (less than 830.34) and high containment rates (greater than 79.61), “few economies like Bolivia, Iraq, Uganda, Guatemala and the Bahamas stand out, “among others.

And the quadrant that incorporates the countries with the worst possible performance – that is, high containment rates (above 79.61) and high deaths per million (above 830.34) – the group is made up of from Argentina, Peru, Panama, Chile and Colombia. .

Argentina was in worst possible group in terms of increased containment, high death toll and largest recession in the world

In this regard, the authors recalled that the governments of Bolsonaro and Trump “have received strong criticism for their health policies in the face of the pandemic”.

However, “as the data shows, Deaths per million did not differ much from countries that had a different policy, as did Argentina, which had more deaths per million than Brazil (948 vs. 901) and slightly below the United States ( 948 against 1030).) “.

“Countries with many deaths, like the United States and Brazil, had moderate or low foreclosure rates, while Hungary and Argentina, with the same deaths, had different lockdowns (in the first case , it was softer while in the second, it was stronger) ”, they concluded.

Moreover, “by analyzing the confinement, we see that the countries with the same severe confinement as Argentina have recorded fewer deaths (Bolivia, Guatemala and Slovenia)”, therefore the reasons for so many deaths on the national territory differ from those of government arguments.

The 10 worst performing countries are Peru (especially with the death figures cleared a few days ago), Argentina, Panama, Colombia, United States, Great Britain, Chile, Italy, Bolivia and Spain.

“It is appreciated that Argentina and Peru are the main representatives of Latin America while Italy, Spain and Great Britain are from Europe”, where the virus spread after having left China.

Between the Countries with a sharp drop in GDP (above 9.09%) and low or moderate deaths per million population (below 830.34), there are very few countries: Iraq, Belize, Bahamas and Barbados, Jamaica and Suriname, among others. “It is not an area representative of what has happened in the world,” they said.

In contrast, there were more examples among countries with a moderate and low level of death (less than 830.34) and small or moderate declines in GDP (less than 9.09%). “These were the most frequent cases or the norm; here appear economies from Latin America like Paraguay, Ecuador and Bolivia to developed countries like Greece, Russia, Poland, Canada and Luxembourg, among others ”, he was detailed.

The case of countries with a significant number of deaths (greater than 830.34), but weak and moderate declines in GDP (less than 9.09%), where “health has been more dramatic than economic, countries like Italy appear, Brazil, Mexico, France, Chile, Colombia and the United States, among others ”.

“Where health was more dramatic than economic, there are countries like Italy, Brazil, Mexico, France, Chile, Colombia and the United States” (Ochoa and Albornoz)

In the group “to which no one would want to belong, that is, the countries which recorded the largest declines in GDP (above 9.09%) and which had the most deaths per million inhabitants (above 830.34) “, there is Argentina. “They were those most affected by the pandemic, both in terms of health and economics. As in the previous analyzes, Argentina, Great Britain, Peru, Spain and Panama are located ”, they condemned.

In this regard, they concluded that “by analyzing countries with a sharp decline in GDP, there were nations with similar setbacks to Argentina, but with fewer deaths. On the other hand, when analyzing the deaths, several countries recorded the same deaths, but with much smaller GDP declines, as was the case in Brazil and the United States ”.

“From the previous sections, a common denominator emerges: whatever the indicators or correlated variables, Argentina is in any case in the worst quadrant. Taking GDP and confinement, the place is shared with Peru, the Bahamas, Iraq and Panama. Using death and containment, Argentina shares the group with Peru, Chile, Colombia and Panama. On the other hand, reporting the drop in GDP and deaths, Argentina is also in the group with the worst performances with Great Britain, Peru, Spain and Panama ”.

“Strong containment has been shown not to resolve the impact of deaths in relative terms: Argentina had higher deaths per million than Brazil and slightly below the United States.

If you are using the proportion of the population vaccinated, countries like Great Britain, Chile and Spain leave the critical group, but Argentina, Peru, Colombia, Bahamas, Panama and Iraq remain”.

In summary, “regardless of the four indicators analyzed in this study, Argentina ranks among the worst countries in the world when it comes to dealing with the covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, the decline in its GDP doubled the average contraction of the selected countries; deaths per million inhabitants tripled the average and the containment severity index was 40% above average ”. Currently, the country already has 80,867 deaths, a figure that, for many experts, could have been avoided with a better strategy for purchasing and applying vaccines.

KEEP READING: