Democracy in Nicaragua hangs by a thread as repression intensifies

Opposition candidates have been arrested. Demonstrations are prohibited. And political parties have been disqualified.

Just a few months before running for re-election, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has barred his country from becoming a one-party state, cracking down on the opposition to an unprecedented extent since the brutal crackdown on anti-government protests in 2018, experts say.

Ortega’s aggressive moves present an unexpected challenge to the Biden administration, which has made strengthening democracy in Central America a pillar of its policy towards the region.

Ortega’s crackdown reached a turning point on Wednesday, after Her government accused one of the main opposition candidates, Cristiana Chamorro, of money laundering and “ideological lying” and placed her under house arrest hours after announcing her intention to run for president September 7.. Another candidate, Arturo Cruz, was arrested on Saturday by police for allegedly “conspiring against Nicaraguan society”.

Three candidates more in the presidency were confined to their homes by the police without yet being the subject of formal charges, which effectively prevented them from organizing electoral campaigns.

“Ortega is on the verge of ending all political competition in the country”said Eliseo Núñez, political analyst and activist from the Nicaraguan opposition. “We are very close to calling it a dictatorship.”

The speed of Nicaragua’s slide towards authoritarianism took even many opponents of Ortega by surprise.

Ortega, former leader of the Nicaraguan revolutionary junta, gradually dismantled the democratic institutions of the country and he has stifled dissent since returning to power in 2007 after winning democratic elections. More than 320 people, most of them protesters, died in protests against his government in 2018, making it the worst wave of political violence in Latin America in three decades..

The protests helped plunge one of the region’s poorest countries into a prolonged economic recession and the granting of US sanctions against top Ortega officials, including his wife, Rosario Murillo, who is the vice president and his spokesperson.

Seeking to ease economic and international pressure, Ortega began talks with the opposition after the protests and struck a deal last year with the Organization of American States (OAS) to make Nicaragua’s electoral system fairer.

But As last month’s reform deadline approached, Ortega radically turned to crackdown. He filled the electoral commission with people who are loyal to him. It has implemented a series of laws that allow its officials to detain or disqualify from office virtually any citizen who has expressed disapproval of the president., including journalists and politicians.

“Ortega did the exact opposite of what was expected,” said Carlos Tünnerman, a former senior official in Ortega’s revolutionary government in the 1980s. “He showed he was ready to do anything to stay in power”.

The government’s most daring move to date was the surprise arrest of Chamorro, a descendant of one of Nicaragua’s richest and most influential families, whose mother defeated Ortega in the 1990 election. Most recently, Chamorro ran a foundation that trained Nicaraguan workers, freelance journalists with funds partly received from the United States, which led the government to accuse him of money laundering and subversion.

Today, only a credible opposition group remains legally eligible to participate in the November vote, offering Ortega’s opponents the last hope. The group, called Citizens for Freedom, is currently electing its presidential candidate, who would de facto become the standard bearer of the usually rebel opposition.

Political analysts say that a strong Citizens for Freedom candidate would have a good chance of mobilizing the bulk of Nicaraguan voters who do not support the government, posing a major electoral threat to the ruling party.

Ortega seems not to take any risks. On Friday, the Allied Election Commission, along with the government, issued a thinly veiled threat of ban any candidate who does not respect the new laws that criminalize political dissent.

Opposition leaders said the new directive gives election officials the power to ban any candidate who poses a serious threat to Ortega or his chosen candidate, leaving him unopposed.

“They are clearly open to taking this last step,” said Félix Maradiaga, one of the favorites to become the candidate for Citizens for Freedom.

Maradiaga himself has been under periodic house arrest without charge since November.

Ortega spokeswoman Murillo did not respond to a request for comment on the detention of opposition candidates made by The New York Times.

Nicaragua’s rapid deterioration of democratic guarantees presented a challenge to the Biden government, which was already struggling to stop growing authoritarianism in Central America.

US officials and lawmakers have responded to Chamorro’s arrest by threatening further sanctions against Ortega.

“We are definitely evaluating the actions we can take to respond” to the political repression, he said. Voice of America the White House’s principal advisor for Latin America, Juan González.

Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on preferential exports to the United States and on US-funded loans from international creditors make sanctions a serious economic threat to Ortega, Central American analyst Tiziano Breda said at International crisis group.

But Sanctions of this magnitude could lead to a crisis in the Nicaraguan economy, who is already contracting, trigger a new exodus of migrants of the region in the United States.

“Ortega had previously presided over a war economy, he shows he is ready to repeat history,” Breda said. “The question is, Is the United States prepared to face the consequences of its actions?”.

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