UK scientists believe ‘there is evidence of third wave’ of coronavirus and government assesses delay in full reopening

Scientists and doctors have raised their voices for ministers to delay de-escalation measures on June 21 amid reports that health officials are reporting a resurgence of the pandemic.

Former government chief science adviser David King, who also chairs the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), issued the strongest warning, saying that current data shows that there is “evidence for the appearance of another wave”.

From the government, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock, was “absolutely open” to delay the June 21 unlock, a clear indication that the date for the next stage of the roadmap may be delayed.

This week will be “critical” to know if the reopening can take place, as the country took a week until a decision was made.

The decision depends on the data on the impact of the Indian or delta variant on hospitalizations, which are largely stable but have increased slightly in some areas.

Hancock even said that this variant was 40 percent more transmissible than the previously dominant Kent variant, a figure that models of the virus’ spread suggest could overwhelm the healthcare system if the de-escalation continues, as predicted so far.

Figures from Sunday showed daily cases increased 65% in one week to 5,341, although deaths continue to decline and evidence for vaccine effectiveness is increasing.

“In the past week infections have increased dramatically, faster than expected,” a source told UK media on Monday. “Hospitalizations have increased, but not by much. Everyone is waiting for the death figures. The absence of spikes in the data will give them the confidence to call them. “

What about vaccines?

The vaccination campaign proposed by the United Kingdom is put to the test. According to data from Our World in Data, the country has already administered 67.5 million doses, with 27.2 million people fully vaccinated, or 40.8% of the population.. The question is whether those infected are patients with a full immunity plan.

Recalling the 5,300 new cases of the disease, it compares to 2,000 compared to last week. For Professor David King, approximately 400 infections every 24 hours occur in people who have received both vaccines, underlines who chairs the SAGE group. It is, he explains, “One in 25 new cases” has two punctures.

Official figures also show that the number of people in English hospitals, which the government says is relatively stable, is 932 per day admitted to hospital, 65 more than last week. “It’s not really stable, it’s slowly increasing,” said the expert.

Dr Megan Smith, who is also the legal and policy leader of the Every Doctor campaign group, told Sky News: “Everyone in the National Health Service (NHS) is a little terrified right now. “

He added that the NHS is under pressure to deal with the problems of the first waves of the pandemic and could not cope with even a small increase in the number of COVID patients.

Before any decision, you will be informed of the June 14, the government hopes that the 60 percent of the adult population has been fully vaccinated by June 21, compared to the current 52.2 percent, and this week injections are being implemented for those under 30.

For the experts, the dose deferral policy can be a clue and a mistake. The effectiveness of vaccines against the Indian or Delta variant, with one dose would be 33%, so a complete vaccination plan is essential to stop this regrowth. Even that would also prove that the European Union’s decision not to space out the second dose could explain, in part, why the variant is not spreading. However, epidemiologists do not want to be conclusive.

John Bell, professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and government advisor on vaccines, said that I would prefer 70% of injections to be complete instead of 60% before lifting the restrictions.

With all this speculation, scientists and officials would debate a two-week deadline until July 5, comments that with the statements of Hancock, and even Prime Minister Boris Johnson could confirm this prospect.

Hospitals on alert

The Society for Acute Medicine has warned that even a small increase in the number of Covid-19s could jeopardize plans to address the backlog of routine surgeries.

Dr Nick Scriven, Past President, “A very important concern” around the delta or Indian variant, “in particular around the possibility that the vaccinated personnel are asymptomatic carriers”.

As hospitals operate by referral, general medicine is increasingly in demand. North West GP Dr Emily Ball said GPs were “Pretty broke and on the verge of exhaustion.”

But there is also another concern. Severe cases aren’t the only effects hospitals fear in the face of the spread and prevention of death. The number of people suffering from prolonged COVID in the country is huge and it is not just the flu, once you have had the vaccine.

The good news is the effectiveness of vaccines. Pfizer and AstraZeneca coronavirus developments highly effective against variant identified in India after two doses, according to a study by Public Health England.

The work maintains that two injections of one of the vaccines provide a similar level of protection against the symptomatic variant of Indian disease as the Kentish or British variant.

However, both vaccines were only 33% effective against the Indian variant three weeks after the first dose. This compared to 50% effective against the Kent or British variant.

On the other hand, it was found, in a real situation, that the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective in stopping the symptomatic variant of Indian disease two weeks after the second dose, compared with 93% effective against the English variant.

Finally, AstraZeneca’s jab was 60% effective against the Indian variant, compared to 66% against the Kent variant. In this case, and unlike what happened in the EU where 60% of the vaccination plan is supported by the development of Pfizer and BioNTech, the equation would be the opposite in the United Kingdom, with a preponderance of English development from Oxford and Astrazeneca.

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