S&P Merval fell after 9 straight hikes, but dollar bonds rose

The biggest declines of the day came from stocks in the Grupo Supervielle (-5.6%); from Cresud (-4.8%); and Galicia (-4.4%). On the upside, for their part, they have succeeded in completing the roles of certain energy companies (generally the most backward measured in dollars), like Edenor (+ 2.2%); Transener (+ 2%); and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (+ 1.8%).

In variable income, $ 3,133 million was traded, divided equally between local stocks and Les Cèdres, something that has been observed repeatedly in the last wheels.

On the New York Stock Exchange, where the major indices closed with little movement (the Dow Jones lost 0.1%, but the Nasdaq gained 0.3%) pending Thursday’s inflation data, The Argentinian stock fell to 4.3% (decline suffered by Galicia), with a few exceptions, such as Edenor which jumped 6.3%.

Operators point out that the dynamics of the domestic market is in the hands of foreign funds, in the midst of the caution imprinted by political, economic and health issues, while we learned in recent hours that President Alberto Fernández will make a new trip to France at the end of the month.

“After the strong recovery in domestic assets, it is their turn to take a break as the reaction has been swift and also fueled by bets aimed at ‘trading’ seeking to capture the ‘ momentum of external flows “, comments an analyst.

The world’s largest index provider, MSCI, began discussions on Tuesday whether the country will continue in its “emerging markets” category or become “frontier” again. Descending in level would mean an entry of positive short-term flows, traders believe. The decision will be known on June 24.

“Among larger buys to emerging markets, the ‘MSCI effect’ and even premature rebalances to an ‘election trade’ would have fueled the technical rebound in ADRs and dollar bonds from penalized valuations,” another explained. specialist.

“The (eventual) decision of MSCI to switch the ‘Frontera’ index to Argentina would generate a positive flow in the rebalancing of portfolios,” they said from Portfolio Personal Inversiones.

Like Argentina’s stock market, Brazil’s main stock index closed lower amid profit-taking that ended a streak of eight consecutive records, the best streak since 2018.

Bovespa fell 0.72% to 129,839.70 points, according to preliminary data. On the foreign exchange market, the real rose 0.06% to 5.0352 units per dollar.

Bonds and country risk

In fixed income, major dollar-denominated bonds ended with broad increases. Globales advanced between +0.5 and + 1%, while the weighted average parity climbed to US $ 36.05.

Yes indeed, the country risk measured by the bank JP.Morgan fell by 15 units, to 1,492 basis points, far from its historical maximum level of 1,669 units recorded in early March.

In the peso segment, CER securities once again showed weakness, closing unevenly, ahead of Wednesday’s auction, where the Treasury will offer LEDE / LEPA from September 2021, LEDE November 2021, LECER March 2022 and LECER May 2022.

What opportunities are opening up in the CER curve in this context? From the personal investment portfolio, they estimate that the Bucteur 2022 (T2X2) “was relatively expensive compared to the curve”. Thus, gaining in liquidity, they say that “it is possible to arbitrate with the X28F2 / TX22 whose lower yield compared to CERs is more than offset by the decrease in duration”.

Last but not least, Further declines of up to 0.5% were recorded among dollar-linked bonds, while the crawling-peg rate stands at 15.16% (daily TNA).