Johnson, faced with the dilemma of a lack of refinement in my …

From London

This Monday Boris Johnson to make an announcement that may define his future policy and health horizon of the United Kingdom in the face of the coronavirus. Thanks to the successful vaccination program, the British forgot about their disastrous handling of the pandemic last year, but a new miscalculation on the way out of current containment and it will be nearly impossible to erase the criticisms for the more than 127,000 deaths since March of last year.

During weekend meetings with key members of your cabinet (Finance, Health and the Chief of Staff) Johnson debated the dilemma posed to his government by growing cases of the new dominant strain, India. Extending the last stage of release from confinement up to four additional weeks would allow time to move forward in the vaccination program and to analyze the impact of this Delta variant on the number of hospitalizations, infections and deaths, but it would also frustrate a sector of society, the Conservative Party and economic groups who have called June 21 “freedom day”. OtherContinuing with this date leaves the government exposed to the seemingly exponential growth of the Delta strain ending in a new wave of coronavirus with high health and political costs.

Within the framework of the G7 summit, the Prime Minister gave a first signal that, contrary to the superficial optimism with which he usually announces his decisions, he will be cautious this time. “If you want to have an irreversible exit roadmap from containment, you have to act with caution,” he told ITV broadcaster.

In theory, Johnson doesn’t want to take one step forward and two steps back.

The exit phases

June 21 is the last phase of the four that the government announced in February to get out of the third national lockdown which began earlier this year. The government promised that the transition from one phase to another – with the corresponding liberalization of economic and social activity – would be guided by “data no dates”, an English play on words, to indicate that the dates ( dates) they were to be subordinate to the pandemic data (data). These data are based on two pillars: the vaccination program and the appearance of new strains.

Today, here’s what the data says:

* infections are growing at their highest intensity since the third wave experienced this winter

* the number of daily infections increased between 3% and 6% on average. In parts of the North West of England, it climbs to 8%.

* 8,125 new cases were recorded on Friday, an increase in infections that had not been observed since the end of February.

Alarm signals are activated when this data is crossed with that of the new strain and vaccination levels. The Delta variant, which today constitutes 96% of new cases, is 60% more contagious than the Alpha, better known worldwide as the British strain, which dominated in the third wave this winter. But also the assessment made by scientists is that the protection offered by the vaccine against Delta is less than with Alpha: 33% with a single dose and about 80% with the second.

At that time, more than 41 million out of a total population of nearly 67 million received the first dose, or about 62% of the population: of this percentage, more than 44% received both inoculations. In other words, around 18 million have to complete their vaccination process, to which can be added about 10 million more, in the 40 to 20 age group, who have not been vaccinated.

To this complex mathematics (degree of exposure of those who have only one dose and those who do not) is added a worrying fact. According to the latest information from Public Health England, Of the 42 deaths recorded in the last 28 days with a positive swab, 23 had not received the vaccine, seven had received one dose and 12 had both doses.

It is true that this last information is not disaggregated to cross it with the degree of vulnerability of the deceased, but it specifies that no one is 100% covered by vaccination, which is not integrated in the behavior of the deceased. the population as a whole. The British Medical Association (BMA) has recommended postponing “freedom day”. “Maximum vaccine protection is reached two weeks after the first dose. It is clear that we are not going to have a sufficient percentage of vaccinated to be better protected ”, explains the director of the board of BMA, Chaand Nagpaul.

Boris’s choice

The decision is political. The cost too. There is the dilemma for Boris Johnson who tends to say what the other wants to hear, just to add a smile, to believe in it and everything will be fine.

This time it won’t be that easy. If you push back on June 21, you will disappoint the tough wing of your party, the entertainment, hospitality and food industries., and the social sectors that want to return to normalcy, including those who want to organize their vacations and some 50,000 couples who are waiting for the decision to get married and party that they have dreamed of for so long.

If you don’t push it back and a third wave occurs, you won’t be able to plead ignorance in the face of a new phenomenon. The suffering of the past 15 months, overshadowed by the relief provided by the vaccination, will reappear with irrevocable questions of neglect. The public inquiry into what happened, which despite protests from relatives of the deceased, will not take place until early next year, will probably be advanced. Everyone knows that openness brings a higher level of contagion: the question is whether the country is able to absorb the impact.