Colombia is changing: Celag survey | Opinion

Each political step is the result of a process, of an accumulation of causes. If on Sunday May 29 of next year, Gustavo Petro were elected president of Colombia, this fact could be explained by a multiplicity of reasons that come from afar.

One of the most interesting aspects that a survey can bring is that it allows us to detect in time the subjective transformations which later lead to electoral results. However, we fall into the constant error of interpreting polls solely on the basis of the voting intention of individual candidates. That is, we’re much more enticed into guessing what the end result will look like instead of enjoying everything that happens in every chapter of a good series. Abridged culture is all the rage.

Unemployment

The latest Celag survey for Colombia (for the entire national territory, with nearly 2,000 sample cases) offers us a very clear photograph of a disputed country living a time of big changes, with a suffering majority, thinks and feels very differently from what the mainstream media installs. The best example is the issue of the prolonged national strike: three quarters of Colombia approve of it, and six in ten consider that the security forces are repressing excessively.

Duke

There is a large majority that negatively values ​​President Iván Duque, both in its management (76.3%) and image (77.5%). Citizens are suffering from an economic crisis made worse by the pandemic but which has lasted for a long time. A very high percentage of households with less than one million Colombian pesos per month cannot afford basic expenses (75%) and, therefore, they have to resort to private debt as the usual mechanism to cope. to this very critical situation (66%). The state is turning its back on both them and on an increasingly stunted middle class. And citizens want more state in all matters of social policy; and he also wants a tax system that increases the taxes of the richest (74%). In Colombia, very few “buy history” that the rich have achieved their wealth through effort (only 18%).

Establishments

The failure of neoliberalism in Colombia can also be seen in the perception of one of its pillars: at the bank. The majority rate their performance very negatively (70%) and there is also fatigue and anger at their abuse in the perception of commissions.

Everywhere you look, the Colombian model is pouring water everywhere. The state attorney general’s office doesn’t have a good image either (66% negative image), even the media do not have great credibility (For example, Caracol and Semana have 74% and 64% distrust, respectively).

Uribe

In other words: everything that the neoliberal project was supposed to support is gradually fading, including uribism. The image of the former president is still in free fall (its negative is 76%). Anti-uribism has today become the main political identity in Colombia; Almost half of the population declares this against 11% who call themselves Uribistas. The vast majority of the population believe that Uribe is corrupt, belongs to the past and is linked to the paramilitary.

Petro

In the midst of a process of accelerated change, each decline has its counterpart in the consolidation of another horizon. In Colombia, this new alternative is led by Gustavo Petro and Colombia Humana. If in 2018 the irruption of Petro on the national scene surprised more than one, today, nearly 60% believe that he will be the next president. The progressive leader has the highest positive image compared to the rest of the leaders; it also has the highest electoral ceiling; and in probable voting intention, he has a very significant advantage over the rest (30 points against 14 for those who follow him, Sergio fajardo).

Petro embodies change in multiple dimensions: in the economic proposition, in the role of the State, in terms of social rights, in forms, in values ​​and in the link with youth. Today, Petro is at the center of Colombian politics.

Three ways

From now on, there will be a lot of water flowing under the bridge. Any conclusive and closed analysis on the electoral question will be as irresponsible as it is lacking in rigor. We don’t even know the names of the candidates yet. But the only thing that can be said with certainty is that a three-way struggle is looming: a majority bloc led by Petro, and two others who will compete for second place: Uribism and the centrist space. . Coalition of Hope (made up of the Greens and a sector of the Liberals). The question is whether Petro will be able to win in the first round, as Fernández in Argentina, AMLO in Mexico or Arce in Bolivia; if he will do it in the second round against all the powers that unite like Castle in Peru; or if, on the contrary, it will happen Lasso in Ecuadorr.

We will see. There is still a lot left in this changing Colombia. To be continued.

Doctor of economics, director of Celag.