What bet Daniel Ortega with his latest attack that jailed candidates and opposition leaders

Daniel Ortega’s strategy seems to be “Flee ahead. “ In the face of growing international pressure to release political prisoners and ensure a fair and competitive electoral process next November, the Nicaraguan regime reacted by doing the opposite.

When the Organization of American States (OAS), several governments and the Nicaraguan opposition demanded an impartial electoral tribunal and electoral reforms for fairer and more transparent elections, The Ortega regime last May elected an electoral tribunal composed of magistrates loyal to it, and electoral reforms have been adopted, further reducing the chances of fair competition.. And over the past three weeks, he unleashed an unusual crackdown that has landed four of the main presidential candidates, nine opposition leaders, two former workers at a non-governmental organization and a businessman.

After this attack by Daniel Ortega, analysts consider, It would be in the interest of a negotiation with the United States to release them from the sanctions that have been imposed on their close entourage., stop the threats weighing on them and give some legitimacy to a new mandate in the government after the elections scheduled for next November.

“The goal is to clear the table of traitors. Come on gringo, do you want to talk to me? Come talk to me. Stop hiring hired killers, come talk to me, let’s agree. Respect me and let us agree. Correct that right away. But It’s with the gringos, with the circus bosses, not with the clownsSaid William Grigsby, a pro-government commentator who boasted on his morning radio show that he was aware of the Sandinista strategy called “Operation Danto 2”.

What can Daniel Ortega offer the United States in a negotiation? “Free political prisoners and open spaces for elections”, estimates the sociologist Oscar René Vargas, for whomn Ortega’s greatest fear is the so-called Renacer law which is said to be about to be passed by the United States Congress and Senate. The law provides for severe penalties for the powerful group around Ortega, including senior Nicaraguan army officials.

“The greatest strength of the Renacer Law, in my opinion, is that it can create a rift within the circle of power: the Army. In the police less, but in the army, it is fundamental ”, explains Vargas. “Depending on the fear that (Ortega) has, he will give more or less in the concessions he can offer.”

Former Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís does not see the possibility that the international community will accept a negotiation where Ortega will be made concessions in exchange for the freedom of political prisoners. “It’s not a transaction; it’s blackmail “he said in an interview with the British channel BBC. “If the change is: I release them, but I remain in power, there is no transaction there, it is a manifest desire of the regime to perpetuate itself.”

“I am one of those who are disconcerted by Ortega’s attitude,” he added, referring to the arrests of opponents. “Because one would have assumed that this attitude was precisely the opposite of that which served the regime. That is to say that once Ortega is aware of the very serious situation in which he finds himself, he would rather seek an accommodation which would make possible a coexistence with the opposition in a regime which he could still control through a large number of deputies, etc. What he did was the opposite: he increased the stake in order to prevent a replacement ”.

Oscar René Vargas, veteran Sandinista, who even once saved the life of Daniel Ortega, considers that “He will play the negotiation card with the United States through Mexico and Argentina“, And believes that” there is an underground movement “from those countries with Ortega” which will only be visible until it is ready. “

“In a possible negotiation, Ortega-Murillo will try to buy time, to give up the minimum to retain power and to obtain the elimination of international sanctions which affect, individually, to his family and the inner circle of power in exchange for certain concessions, realizing impunity and power quotas“, dice.

“If those in favor of heavier sanctions are wrong to believe that with more sanctions the regime will fall, the supporters of the negotiations are naive, believing that the lifting of the sanctions could open a way to defuse the current socio-political impasse and lead us to democracy “he adds.

However, the sociologist believes that Ortega “has gotten out of hand” in his calculation and that the international reaction has been much stronger than he had expected. “You are paying a very high cost because you are also endangering the non-growth of the economy. The economy, according to the World Bank, is expected to grow by 0.9%, but the risk is that it will not grow at all or be negative. It also hits investment and encourages the flight of capital and brainpower through migration ”.

Until last May, according to family members and human rights organizations, there were around 120 political prisoners in Nicaragua, to which would be added the 16 captured in the past three weeks.

Another scenario, Vargas points out, would be that Ortega intends to use political prisoners as a bargaining chip to force the opposition to accept next November’s election results as legitimate. But it would be a second phase. He is preparing to negotiate in January 2022. Ortega is still negotiating according to two scenarios, hoping for the one that suits him best ”.

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