The Delta variant of the coronavirus has three versions: the reasons

The Delta variant, found in around 100 countries and designated by the abbreviation B-1617, appeared in India in October 2020, along with another similar, but less aggressive variant, the B-1618. In international genetic databases, the Delta variant, according to the terminology recently introduced by the World Health Organization (WHO), has become the so-called variant of concern (VOC), that is, with characteristics which generate particular concern.

Like all variants, Delta also accumulates mutations with relative ease., to such an extent that it very quickly gave birth to a kind of “family”, whose members are three in the versions called B-1617-1, B-1617-2 and B-1.617-3.

Among these, the most widespread is B-1617-2, considered 60% more efficient in transmission than the Alpha variant thanks to certain mutations, such as K417N, also present in gamma variants, B-1351 identified for the first time in Brazil, in the Beta identified in South Africa and E-484Q, also present in the gamma variant.

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The B-1617-2 variant has now also evolved, developing a new version, designated by the initials B-1617-2-1 or more simply AY-1. It was identified in India at the Institute for Genomics and Integrative Biology (LGIB) of the National Research Council of India (CSIR).

According to Igib researchers, it is already widespread in some countries and has characteristics that they could convert it more resistant to vaccines and therapies against Covid-19, based on antibodies. These properties are thought to be due to the K-417N mutation, also present in the Beta variant.

The Delta variant is coming to Europe

The Delta variant is making its weight felt in Europe, while in the UK it has raised the curve of the pandemic and brought it closer to peaks and, in Moscow, its presence has been recognized in 89% of Covid-19 patients .

Most likely the circulation of this variant is also at the origin of the high figures of the epidemic in Spain and Turkey, where the curve cannot bend.

In the wake of summer and travel, the circulation of this new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus raises new questions about strategies to limit its spread.

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So in just over six months it has reached at least 74 countries, according to WHO data. In February, it emerged in the UK where it quickly became dominant and the rise in infections accelerated. Data from the UK public health agency, Public Health England (Phe), estimated 76,000 cases last week, mostly concentrated in England and Scotland, where Delta is responsible for 99% of cases.

It is again the data from the United Kingdom which indicates that Delta especially hits the youngest. Research from Imperial College London indicates that it is 2.5 times more common among those aged 5 to 49 than among those over 50.

The UK is also the country with the highest incidence in Europe, with 75 weekly cases per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute of Computing Applications “Mauro Picone”, belonging to the National Research Council (CNR-IAC).

This complex situation also gave rise to the order of the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, which provides since June 21 a quarantine of 5 days, with obligation to take samples, for those coming from Great Britain. Instead, only fans expected in Italy on June 20 for the football match between Italy and Wales will be tested.

In most European countries all incidence curves are downward or flatten to very low levels, and UK and Russia are not the only exceptions: Spain and Turkey deserve our attention, where the decrease in cases is very slow, and the incidence is respectively 66 and 50 weekly cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

To date, 23 European countries have a higher incidence than Italy, which is 19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week. And there are three, at this stage, the open questions to be able to stop the circulation of this variant in Italy, whose entity in the country is not yet possible to define in a concrete way since a sequencing is lacking. .

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A step forward in this direction is the announcement by the Higher Institute of Health of an integrated sequencing network: a fundamental instrument for controlling the circulation of variants.

The first point is the ability of the vaccines to protect the Delta and the first data seems to indicate a greater protection after the second dose, mainly with regard to the reduction of hospitalizations and deaths, observes Giuseppe Arbia, professor of economic statistics of the ‘Catholic Church. University of Rome. But if the Delta variant escapes vaccines, for Under Secretary of Health Pierpaolo Sileri, a halt to flights from Britain may be necessary. Second, specifies the Paris physicist, it will then be essential to resume tracking and follow up. And, finally, it will be necessary to continue to avoid the crowds.