Alberto Fernández tightens geopolitical contacts to achieve his first diplomatic victory in Latin America

Alberto Fernández is stubborn. He once fought Donald Trump to put Gustavo Beliz at the helm of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and he lost without extenuating circumstances. And now he intends to take on the management of CAF, another very influential multilateral lender in Latin America. The head of state has the tacit support of the White House and is waging an all-out battle against Ivan Duque and Jair Bolsonaro, who use geopolitical competition to mark their ideological differences with the Front de tous government.

The election to CAF – Development Bank of Latin America – is a political event that will allow us to know if Argentina was isolated in the Southern Cone and very close to the populist regimes of Bolivia, Peru and Venezuela. Alberto Fernández wants Christian Asinelli, Undersecretary for International Financial Relations, gain ownership of this body, But two Mercosur partners, Brazil and Uruguay, have already turned their backs on it.

A few days ago, the administrations of Jair Bolsonaro and Luis Lacalle Pou have indicated that they are voting for Sergio Díaz-Granados, the candidate promoted by Colombia. Mario Abdo Benítez, President of Paraguay, He had also made a commitment to Duque, which assumes that CAF is a Colombian implicitly owned bank.

However, Alberto Fernández made an informal appeal to Paraguay and asked Benítez to Be ready your support for Díaz Granados. To the presidential communication was added a secret and lightning trip that Asinelli made to Asunción to explain his project to Benítez and his cabinet.

In the end, Asinelli did not have his audience with Benítez. The drama had already occurred in Miami, and the sister-in-law of the Paraguayan president, Sophia López Moreira, was on the list of the missing after the collapse of the Champlain Towers complex. However, the Argentine candidate met the Minister of the Economy and achieved a partial victory: he ratified in Asunción that Benítez now doubts supporting Díaz Granados.

At the political gesture of the appeal to Benítez, the Argentine head of state added a reserved conversation with Pedro Castillo, possible president of Peru. Duque and Bolsonaro had managed to get Francisco Sagasti – Peruvian president – to support the Colombian candidate for CAF. And that put Asinelli in perpetual check.

Sagasti ends his term on July 28, and the CAF election is July 5. Ergo: Castillo is on the sidelines of a regional decision for 23 days, which will mean giving up a multilateral financial resource that will be managed by Brazil and Colombia for five consecutive years.

And it’s not just the length of the term. Duque and Bolsonaro are ideological poles apart from Castillo, that he should support a CAF leader who does not share his point of view on Latin America, capitalism and the current global agenda.

In this context, Alberto Fernández called Castillo’s cell phone. The conversation took place nine days ago and Castillo has vowed to block Sagasti’s political decision in favor of Duque and Bolsonaro. In addition, the possible head of state of Peru has accepted a videoconference with Gustavo Beliz, secretary for strategic affairs, and the candidate Asinelli.

Beliz and Asinelli are personal friends, and the two support the president to achieve the government’s first diplomatic victory in Latin America.. “Very happy and grateful to receive the support of President-elect @PedroCastilloTe for Argentina’s candidacy for the presidency of @AgendaCAF. We will work to forge a consensus for a just and lasting recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean, ”Asinelli wrote on his official Twitter account.

Castillo has made an eloquent diplomatic gesture towards Alberto Fernández, but Sagasti has no intention of backing down. And as there is still no judicial recognition of Castillo’s triumph, the current president of Peru is not required to change his vote. No more no less.

The Andean Development Corporation (CAF) was created by Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. And these countries, unlike other member states, have a double vote when electing authorities. While Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and the 13 private banks that make up the board have only one vote.

Until Friday, June 25, the electoral panorama was in the following terms:

-Asinelli: Argentina, Bolivia, Spain, Mexico, Trinidad Tobago and Venezuela. Total: 8 votes.

-Díaz-Granados: Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and the 13 private banks. Total: 9 votes.

Votes in doubt: Panama and Paraguay.

Countries which do not have the right to vote, but are members of CAF: Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Portugal.

Asinelli will lead CAF, if Peru votes for her. Because the Peruvian decision pushes the votes of Panama and Paraguay, who always play the winner. And from this point of view, the final number would be 12 votes for Asinelli, and only 7 for Díaz-Granados.

The institutional labyrinth will multiply its mirrors if Peruvian justice does not recognize Castillo before the vote on July 5. On that day, Duque and Bolsonaro will have the support of Sagasti, an accidental president in Latin American history. And so Díaz-Granados would be registered in CAF by a majority that would also include Panama and Paraguay.

Alberto Fernández will ask for the postponement of the board meeting of July 5, if Castillo has not yet been appointed president by the electoral justice. And if that doesn’t happen, and Bolsonaro and Duque decide to move forward in the same way, The Argentine head of state analyzes the possibility of proposing the dismissal of Díaz-Granados when Castillo succeeds Sagasti in Peru.

It’s not just a vote in CAF. Alberto Fernández intends to demonstrate that a different political and social agenda can be implemented in Latin America, and for that he must lead a geopolitical triumph with Mexico, Peru, Bolivia and Spain, which has big investments in the region.

On the other side of the table would be Duque, Bolsonaro, Lacalle Pou and Sebastián Piñera, ideologically-cut presidents who distrust Alberto Fernández, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Luis Arce, Pedro Sánchez and Castillo, political leaders. who do not adore free trade and state anomie.

The CAF election raises an open battle for the regional agenda, the tone of the diplomatic relationship with the United States and the millionaire financing funds managed by this multilateral bank. Alberto Fernández is looking for his place in the international system, and the duque and Bolsonaro tandem confirms the specific weight of Colombia and Brazil in Latin America.

The geopolitical dilemma accepts only one winner and one answer.

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