The keys to the new scenario in Venezuela: the United States draws closer to Europe but keeps the sword high | International

The Venezuelan board of directors has moved. The turn of the United States and their desire to lower sanctions in exchange for transparent elections was fundamental. This change was forged from the first meeting in Brussels between Josep Borrell, High Representative for Foreign Policy of the European Union, and Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State. During this meeting, according to European sources, Borrell has already transmitted to Blinken his proposal for cooperation to seek a solution to the long political, economic and humanitarian crisis in this Caribbean country. And faced with the time pressure of a meeting during which it was necessary to discuss the entire international agenda with the new American administration, the Spaniard gave the head of American diplomacy a first text that triggered the initiative. common. In this working role, the European Foreign Service x-rayed the Venezuelan situation, the profile of the main protagonists of the Maduro regime and the opposition, and the mistakes that, in Brussels’ view, the United States had made.

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Blinken picked up the glove thrown by Borrell. And from that moment, technicians on both sides of the Atlantic began to work out the political proposal that was reflected in a joint declaration, signed with Canada, last Friday. In it, representatives of European and North American diplomacy ask Caracas for a reform plan in which Maduro commits to holding democratic elections, and in return they offer a gradual lifting of sanctions, an offer that has become the heart of the new strategy on Venezuela.

Negotiations for the start of the days of negotiations between the government of Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, on behalf of the opposition parties, with the mediation of Norway, are starting to accelerate. A delegation from the European Union will visit Caracas to assess whether it is possible for an international mission to visit Venezuela during the upcoming regional elections in November.

Meanwhile, the government of Nicolás Maduro, interested in leaving the area of ​​siege on the international scene, offers new concessions, trying to stimulate the electoral participation of its enemies: it recently formalized the end of the mandate of the “protectors” – figure appointed to the executive power to protect the management of the elected governors of the opposition; and he announced the return of one of the electoral cards of the opposition parties confiscated by the electoral authorities in recent years. At the same time, the new parliament, controlled by the ruling party, is devising a new law on communal towns that would increase its control over the states of the country to the detriment of the governors.

A committee of opposition leaders, led by Gerardo Blyde, Leopoldo López and Julio Borges, recently visited Washington and Brussels to reinforce the current coincidences and align the views to be presented to the negotiating table . The opposition will propose a general electoral calendar as a starting point to re-legitimize the public authorities, unknown to much of the Western world since 2018, with the conviction that an honest popular consultation will be the only possible parameter to rebuild the country. . Maduro calls for any agreement with the opposition to begin by recognizing the constituted authorities in his regime. It is highly likely that Maduro will attempt to steer any deal around holding a presidential election slated for 2023.

Matches without consensus

The new area of ​​coincidence of Brussels and Washington concerning the Venezuelan crisis presents important nuances. The division within the Joe Biden administration over Venezuela, in particular, and Latin America in general, is increasingly evident. Less than four months after coming to power, the White House has strongly asserted, through Juan Sebastián González, adviser for the western hemisphere to the National Security Council and the man who whispers in the ear of the president on Latin American affairs, that a policy change regarding Venezuela (and Cuba) was not a “priority” on the international agenda of the Democratic president. With an open trade war with China and taking the first steps to try to save the nuclear deal with Iran, Washington wants to play it safe and not open any other front, which is why it continues to maintain unilateralism. and the sanctions of the Trump era. .

In the White House, there seems to be a will not to lift any sanctions against Maduro if there is not a real democratic commitment on his part. At the same time, the State Department plays its role, that of diplomacy, and opts for consensus and negotiation, according to European diplomatic sources in Washington, even if this concert must always go through the European Union. However, diplomatic support does not prevent Blinken from calling Nicolás Maduro a “brutal dictator” and ensuring that the United States continues to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela.

James Story, American ambassador to Venezuela stationed in Bogotá, considers that “sanctions are only an instrument to force the transition to democracy”. “I think the deal is workable. Politics is not static, we are always reviewing tactics. We are maintaining the pressure of sanctions, and above all the same objectives, ”he told EL PAÍS.

In a sector of the Venezuelan opposition negotiating team, there is prevention in the face of the approach and styles of Josep Borrell, a politician generally seen as little committed to a real restoration of democracy in the country and more concerned with getting rid of an extremely complex problem and forging a partial consensus around regional elections. They fear that he is only vaguely committing Maduro to holding an election that will still be held in 2023.

Being Spain, for historical and cultural reasons, the natural interlocutor of Europe in Latin America, Venezuelan politicians believe they have the understanding of almost all the nations of the old continent, in particular those of Eastern Europe, but some believe that these impressions pass through the Borrell filter. , whose interpretation qualifies the judgment of the excesses committed by Maduro during these years on the basis of a strategy that must necessarily be gradual and practical. This would be the reason why statements by the European Parliament on the case of Venezuela tend to be much more forceful than statements by Borrell himself.

“In Europe, there is no well-founded idea of ​​the implications and gravity of Maduro’s dictatorship, and if they know it, they don’t care,” said a senior Venezuelan official very close to the process negotiation that has preferred anonymity. “The United States knows it and it cares. That’s the difference “.

The opposition electoral tick

Borrell’s gradual approach does meet with Henrique Capriles Radonski, a fundamental Venezuelan opposition leader who questioned Juan Guaidó and his strategy during the Donald Trump era, and who leads an emerging faction of independent activists determined to explore different avenues, in particular. , to those of Leopoldo López. Capriles participated in the agreement that made possible the appointment of the new rectors of the National Electoral Council, managed by Maduro. Of his own accord, however, the opposition leader is on the sidelines of the current opposition negotiating team with Chavismo.

The offers made by Maduro to improve the Venezuelan electoral framework questioned during these years encourage the militant bases of the parties which support Guaidó himself. Recently, the number of leaders who insist on participating in the regional elections in November has increased. This revisionist spirit includes the Voluntad Popular, – a party founded by Leopoldo López, to which Guaidó belongs -, which has so far demonstrated the most combative attitude against Chavist hegemony.

“Our great fear is that this mission of the European Union will come and say what Maduro wants to be told”, confides another leader of the opposition close to Guaidó’s team. “I suspect that for them it is enough to have moderately transparent regional elections and leave this problem in Maduro’s hands again. Get rid of it ”.

Movements in Washington and Brussels

Last week, State Department Under-Secretary Wendy Sherman and Julio Borges, a close aide to Guaidó and his man for Venezuelan Relations-related affairs, met in the building that has traditionally served as the residence of Guaidó. the Venezuelan Ambassador to Washington. Exterior. In a statement after the meeting, US diplomacy reported on the meeting and reaffirmed that it would continue to coordinate “with its international and Venezuelan partners efforts to meet the humanitarian needs of the Venezuelan people.”
Borges thanked this pale help and “the ratification of his support for democracy in Venezuela”. Likewise, Julie Chung, who occupies an interim position with the agency dedicated to the Western Hemisphere, said the United States is proud “to partner with the people of Venezuela and with the government led by Guaidó to support the return to democracy in Venezuela. “We will continue to work together towards a negotiated solution leading to free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections,” Chung concluded. But beyond the promise of greater collaboration with allies of the United States and the Supporting the delivery of more humanitarian aid to Venezuela, the Biden administration has done little to ease Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign to topple Maduro.
Undoubtedly, the statement after Sherman and Borges’ meeting built bridges and was a gesture on the part of North American diplomacy, which occurred as several opposition leaders were visiting the capital. American, among which were Leopoldo López, Carlos Vecchio, the representative of the diplomat United States, and an envoy of Henri Capriles. Biden is aware that if he gives up his heavy hand against the Bolivarian regime, he risks an uprising in Florida, the cradle of Venezuelan exile.

On the European side, Borrell has already taken steps forward and, despite the reluctance of part of Brussels, has decided to send an “exploratory mission” to Venezuela next week which will analyze the situation on the ground and assess the possibilities of ” send an election observation mission to the elections next fall. From the outset, the sending of the first mission did not provoke the frontal rejection of the European Parliament, where the European People’s Party (conservatives) was the only major group to oppose it. On the other hand, the liberals of Renew, where the Spanish MEPs from Ciudadanos are active, did not oppose, a position that diplomatic sources consider very significant.
On the other hand, at the European Commission, they consider that the Biden administration will not be deeply involved in the resolution of the Venezuelan crisis as long as the negotiations with Iran to recover the denuclearization pact are not closed. A pact where the international community follows, moreover, the same pattern as in the new policy vis-à-vis Venezuela: a request for certain measures in exchange for the withdrawal of sanctions.