World will be fully vaccinated by 2023, new research warns

Are needed around 11 billion doses to fully immunize 70% of the world’s population against COVID-19. Since July 4, 3.2 billion doses. With the current vaccination rate, this will grow to around six billion doses by the end of the year, project researchers International Monetary Fund, based in Washington DC.

But until now over 80% of the doses went to people living in high and upper middle income countries. Only 1% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose, according to the site Our world in data.

Last month, the leaders of the group of wealthy nations G7 pledged extra doses for low and middle income countries (LMICs) by the end of 2022, on a summit at Cornwall, UK. The centerpiece was a promise from the US president Joe biden to give 500 million doses of the vaccine manufactured by the pharmaceutical company Pfizer from New York City and the biotech company BioNTech in Mainz, Germany. This is in addition to 87.5 million promised before. the UK promised 100 million, Yes France, Germany Yes Japan got engaged to about 30 million each.

China sent around 30 million vaccine doses of at least 59 countries, according to data released on July 2 by researchers at Duke Global Health Innovation Center in Durham, North Carolina. Andrea Taylor, health policy researcher and deputy director of the center, says these promises are unlikely to get more vaccines any faster for the world’s poorest people. In March, his group predicted that the world would be vaccinated in 2023; in recent research published in the scientific journal Nature, Taylor make sure that This date he still holds.

Additional commitments will be offset by export restrictions. The European Union and the United States ban exports of certain vaccines and vaccine ingredients. The EU insists that companies honor their commitments to deliver vaccines to the EU before exporting elsewhere. In February, India, ore about six in ten doses of vaccine worldwide are manufactured, he ordered to manufacturers in the country stop exporting COVID-19 vaccines, including the COVAX initiative, which was created by groups like the World Health Organization (WHO) to distribute vaccines to low- and middle-income countries. This is a major setback, he points out Taylor.

COVAX promised to vaccinate one fifth of the population of each low and middle income country (LMIC) by administering two billion doses by the end of the year. He bought 2.4 billion doses, up from 1.1 billion in March, according to data from the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. But since July 2, COVAX had shipped 95 million doses, against 65 million in May.

During, COVID-19 cases are now on the rise in Africa. The Africa office of the World Health Organization, situated at Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, he says that the number of COVID-19 infections increased by 39% from June 13 to 20 and by 25% in the week ending June 27. At least 20 countries, included Zambia, Uganda, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, know a third wave of infections, according to African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The toilets are overwhelmed.

Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, based in Cambridge, UK, is one of the main sources of COVAX vaccine doses. In June 2020, the company signed an agreement with the Serum Institute of India (SII) in Pune, one of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturers, to manufacture 1 billion doses of the vaccine the company developed with the Oxford University, United Kingdom and send them to PRFIs. Of these, 400 million doses were to be delivered by the end of 2020.

But infections began to resurface during India’s second wave in March. In February, the government ordered the SII to divert all vaccine supplies to meet domestic demand. This particularly affected COVAX. At the end of March of this year, the alliance had only received 28 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine – Oxford. He was to receive an additional 90 million at the end of April; these are now pending.

In general, Between February and May, African countries received only 18.2 million of the 66 million doses they expected through COVAX. Of the nearly 1.3 billion people in Africa, only 2% received a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. And just over 1% (26 million people) are fully immunized, according to the Africa office. WHO.

A spokesperson for the SII he said Nature What the company plans to resume global exports by the end of 2021. Since COVAX stated that, Despite the delays, the organization is confident it will be able to meet its goal of delivering two billion doses by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the african union this explore other options. With the financial assistance of World Bank, obtained 400 million doses of the single-injection vaccine developed by the pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson, based in New Brunswick, NJ.

Let me put it bluntly, We’re not winning this battle with the virus in Africa, so I don’t care if the vaccines are from COVAX or elsewhere. All we need is quick access to vaccines, ”said the director of the CDC from Africa, John Nkengasong, during a briefing at the end of last month.

Some African countries are also negotiating agreements with vaccine manufacturers to fill the gap left by IBS. But these countries they are usually at the end of the queue, of Taylor, because they do not have the purchasing power of the richest countries.

Vaccinations needed now

With the makers of India out of the picture for now, The United States is emerging as the world’s largest supplier of vaccine doses for low- and middle-income countries, explains Taylor, and began to distribute some of its surplus supplies.

However, according to the WHO chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan, it might be too late. “The uneven distribution of vaccines allowed the virus to continue to spread”, He says. Unvaccinated populations are already at risk, especially new coronavirus variants, such as Delta (also known as B.1.617.2). “We need countries with a substantial supply to donate 250 million doses by September,” he explains. Swaminathan.

The WHO calls on its Member States to support a major effort to vaccinate at least 10% of people in all countries by September, with a “Boost until December” to vaccinate at least 30% before the end of the year. It will happen only if countries immediately share doses with COVAX and if manufacturers prioritize COVAX orders, warns Swaminathan.

“The timing is extremely important,” he adds. Taylor. “Doses shared now will have a lot more impact than doses six months from now. We need the rich countries to send doses immediately. “

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