Chile: new leaders and expectations for the November elections

During the day of this Sunday, July 18, they performed the Chilean presidential primary elections in which the Trans-Andean citizens have chosen who will be the candidates for the presidency of the republic for the legislative elections of 21 November.

On the side of the left alliance, the young Gabriel Boric beat the communist mayor of the municipality of Santiago de Recoleta, Daniel Jadue, who was the favorite in all the polls. But the surprise occurred in the primary of the right-wing alliance called “Chili Vamos ”, from Joaquín Lavin the former mayor of Las Condes and preferred pre-candidate at the head of the official nomination, was severely beaten by Sebastián Sichel who will ultimately be the right-wing candidate.

Beyond the news to meet the probable future president of Chile, this electoral primary stands out with other elements relevant to Trans-Andean politics.

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In the first place, This election is further proof of the end of traditional leadership, including the figures of Sebastián Piñera but also of former president Michele Bachelet. Not only are they both considered by Chilean public opinion to be responsible for the socio-economic crisis that led to the social breakdown of 2019, but also their candidates were the big losers in yesterday’s primaries.

On Piñera’s side, his candidate obtained only 10% of the votes in the “Chile Vamos” alliance. But on the side of former President Bachelet, the situation is even worse since neither of his two candidates, Paula Narváez and Yasna Provoste, seemed to compete in the primaries, ceding the protagonism of the moderate progressive sectors to the leftist Gabriel Boric.

But Bachelet and Piñera are not the only ones whose leaderships are decimated. This primary election could come to ber the end of Joaquín Lavin’s political career, historical leader of the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and former Minister Piñerista. After unsuccessfully running for president in 1999 and 2005, it looked like this year could be the last year and finally become Chilean head of state. However, not only did this not happen, but the nomination within his coalition could not even be obtained.

This election is further proof of the end of traditional leadership, including the figures of Sebastián Piñera but also of former president Michelle Bachelet

These leadership shifts could not, in turn, occur without a generational metamorphosis. So many Boric and Sichel represent the new left and the new right respectively, two positions with an urgent need to be able to meet the demands of the new Chile. In fact, they themselves are the new generation of young leaders. Without going any further, none of them is over 43 years old and Boric was even 4 years old when democracy returned to his country.

This implies that both developed during the management of the Concertación outside the period of the Pinochet dictatorship (1973-1990), unlike other more important candidates who were excluded from the electoral competition and who were even fervent adherents of the dictatorial regime. And although in Sichel’s case he came from Christian democracy, historically associated with center-left alliances, the differences with progressive options have led him in recent years to seek to rebuild the center-right against the new Chile. which emerges after the social outbreak.

And these new directions are found in the electoral agendas of each of the two candidates. On Boric’s side, his platform is focused on the environment, the decarbonization of the country, the deepening of certain feminist and gender equality policies, the modification of the education system to offer better access to public education and greater political and institutional decentralization in a still unitary Chile. On the Sichel side, he proposes to improve access to justice, to promote productivity in the regions with direct transfers to entrepreneurs and to generate tax breaks for the middle class.

Yes what can happen before the presidential election in november? It is not yet known. First, because although in this primary the alliance of the left obtained more votes than the coalition of the right, the legislative elections represent a completely new competition and different from the primaries and any scenario is probable. But also, it must be taken into account that despite the fact that the primaries have already passed, new candidates for the presidential elections can still be presented. This is the case of the so-called “disagreement” candidates who, not having had to settle internal disputes within their respective parties, did not need to go through yesterday’s primary and can announce their candidacies. in the next few days. , as is the case with far-right José Antonio Kast and the aforementioned Social Democrats Paula Narváez and Yasna Provoste.

Is this likely to happen? Yes, it can happen. But that carries very significant risks for those who decide to compete now, especially for the latter, since Sunday’s primary triumphs represent the worst-case scenarios for them. Indeed, with Boric and Sichel representing the less extreme options within their respective ideologies, this will generate an electoral polarization between center-right and center-left, but the fact that they are not radicalized candidates will also reduce the ideological spectrum. leading to limit the electoral capital other moderate and centrist options who also want to compete.

Yasna Provoste, if presented, will she be able to bring together progressive options while differentiating herself from Boric? Will he be able to capitalize on the fear that certain sectors have of a candidate who defines himself as socialist? Will Kast be able to snatch votes from Sichel’s center-right? Much remains to be seen.

* Graduated in political science. Professor at the Argentine Catholic University (UCA) and at the Technological Institute of Buenos Aires (ITBA). Researcher at the Center for International Studies (CEI-UCA).