The IPCC prepares the most comprehensive report on climate change since 2013

The last few weeks have been rich in catastrophic weather headlines. The northwestern United States and Canada experienced the highest temperatures in history. In China and Germany, there have been floods that occur once every several centuries or once in every millennium. The Paraná is experiencing a downpour that could become the most important in 140 years. The UK Met Office has just released its weather report and says 2020 was the third hottest day, the fifth wettest and the eighth with the sunniest days on record. According to this work, there is no other year that is in the Top ten all three criteria at the same time. Experts say that over the past three decades, this country has become 6% more humid and its average temperature has risen by 0.9 degrees. Regarding these figures, meteorologist Mike Kendon said: “Many believe that climate change is something of the future, but it proves that the climate is already changing.

Against this backdrop, scientific and political representatives from 195 countries come together (for the first time in virtual form) to do the most in-depth review and update of the latest evidence on global warming that has been conducted since 2013. The Co-Chair of Group I, responsible for preparing this document, which will serve as a basis for the deliberations of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 26), to be held between 1 and 12th in Glasgow, Scotland is our country’s meteorologist and Deputy Minister of Science Carolina Vera.

“Several reports have already been prepared and approved, some focused on oceans, others on extreme events … but the heart of the IPCC is the three general reports, as they are called,” says Vera. It is that of Working Group I, which deals with the physical bases of climate change, but the other two are also under development (that of Working Group II, on impacts and adaptation; and that of Group III, on mitigation.). The latter will be approved in 2022 ”.

The process started two years ago. Over 300 authors from different parts of the world were selected and, as usual, it has had several review processes. During these two weeks, when meetings take place from 1:00 am to 11:00 pm, the “Summary for Policymakers” will be approved.

On the proposal of researchers, governments first approve the skeleton of what will be processed. “In this case there are 12 chapters that make an assessment of all the scientific literature that has to do with the current state of the climate system, in what situation are the different factors that influence the climate, both natural and caused by human activities – explains Vera -. They also analyze the state of major indicators: how global warming is evolving (there will surely be a new number of increases in average temperatures and future projections) for the atmosphere, the oceans , ice, earth ”.

And then he adds: “This report has two remarkable aspects for me: one is that it analyzes a large volume of studies which allow more conclusions to be drawn about the human influence on the various components of the climate system. Information at the regional level has also made significant progress ”.

Roadmap

As in the previous analyzes, the magnifying glass will be placed on what is called the “attribution” problem; that is to say the role of humanity in this crisis. There will be a chapter on extreme events: storms, floods and droughts, and other low probability but high impact events. And new information will also be analyzed on sea level rise, and the state of the Arctic and Antarctic, as well as the possibilities (or not) of achieving the goals agreed in Paris.

The book will offer detailed information on the different regions with a novelty: an interactive atlas, validated by the agency, in which interested parties can build their own projection maps for the different zones and variables. “It is a tool that did not exist until now – says Vera – and it is very valuable for countries which do not have a scientific community capable of developing these resources.”

Six author-coordinators from Argentina participate in this report, a relatively high number, given that in general those from developed countries predominate. Just as the 2013 report concluded that humans are the dominant force driving global warming, the groundwork has been laid for the Paris Agreement and the goal of keeping it below two degrees (preferably one and a half degrees). , it is expected that it will provide the contribution for other scientific agreements to be concluded. The findings will be announced from August 10.

Established in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) aims to help politicians to assess scientific knowledge, impact and potential options for dealing with climate change every six to seven years. this threat. This new report should be a wake-up call for governments and will include a 40-page “road map” for policymakers.