Taliban offensive threatens Kabul | International

The Taliban offensive looms over Kabul as it progresses inexorably through Afghanistan. Guerrillas late Saturday conquered the great northern government stronghold, the city of apo-i-Sharif, while security forces fled, and managed to control several other provincial capitals – there is already a 20 of the 34 that Afghanistan is divided into – on its march to the capital, which is between 70 and 40 kilometers from – according to the Associated Press, there was even fighting in a neighborhood 11 kilometers to the South. Thousands of citizens are fleeing areas already under their control and taking refuge in the streets of the city. The fear of a capture of Kabul seized a population which saw how the government army did not cease losing ground, giving way sometimes without any resistance to the militias.

The arrival of a contingent of 3,000 American troops to protect the evacuation of its embassy staff, and similar announcements from other Western countries, reinforce the feeling of disintegration of the Central Asian country (of 38 million inhabitants) and fear at the prospect of a takeover of the capital in no time. “This will set the country back 200 years,” predicts Mahboba Saraj, director of the Afghan Women’s Network, faced with the danger of a return to power by the Taliban, who between 1996 and 2001 imposed a radical interpretation of Islam that condemned the female population to cover themselves with the burqa, vetoed their education from the age of 10, and imposed sanctions on the population such as amputations for theft.

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The presence of international troops over the past two decades has opened the country to development, the recapture of freedoms suppressed by fundamentalists, and the establishment of democratic institutions that threaten to be lost. “Kabul is not under imminent threat,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Friday, but could not help admitting that insurgents “are trying to isolate” the capital. The Pentagon has made it clear that the Afghan military is now responsible for the United States and has called for “political and military leadership” in the face of a reality that shows that the million dollar investment by Washington and its NATO allies did not prepare the country’s forces before the Taliban assault.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, increasingly under pressure from the international community, after losing one of the country’s most important cities, warned on Saturday that “the advances of the past 20 years are in danger,” he said. – he assured that the priority is now the “remobilization” of his forces and that he has initiated “consultations” which “are progressing rapidly” with political leaders and international partners to find “a political solution which brings peace and stability” . But the displaced (250,000 nationwide since May) continue to arrive and Afghans are flooding diplomatic delegations with visa applications, Reuters reported.

The strength and speed of the Taliban offensive, although increasing since the departure of international troops in May, was forged in 2006, with a gradual expansion of the insurgents after a few years of withdrawal into the mountains and other areas. withdrawn from government control after being expelled from Kabul by the United States in 2001 with the invasion following the 9/11 attacks.

Reappearance of the Taliban

Several factors played a role in the resurgence of guerrilla warfare after a conflict that cost nearly a trillion dollars and killed tens of thousands of Afghans and some 3,000 international coalition troops. For starters, the Taliban leadership’s offer to surrender was rejected by the superpower, focused on destroying Al Qaeda, responsible for the September 11 attacks and protected by the militia. And many of the new Afghan leaders who took power in Kabul after the US entered took bloody reprisals against the Taliban, in US military offensives or with their own factional or ethnic militias, a called back by phone Shukriya Barekzai, the Ambassador of Afghanistan in Norway.

The also prominent women’s activist points out that the offer of amnesty and reconciliation presented by former President Hamid Karzai to convince the Taliban to join civilian life has also been hampered by the sabotage efforts of these leaders. “Unfortunately, as most of the government posts were held by those who had fought the Taliban during their reign, they thought it was the right time for revenge, and this caused ethnic differences,” he said, adding : “Instead of reaching a peaceful solution, they started to retaliate. There were numerous military operations and bombings, and villages and houses were destroyed in many remote areas where the Taliban were not present Enraged by the bombings, searches and arrests in villages, residents of the affected areas turned to the Taliban or took up arms. “This is why the Taliban began to regain some kind of legitimacy to fight foreigners and, of course, the government, ”Barekzai explains.

Former journalist Said Azam, who now resides in Canada but lived in Afghanistan during the Taliban regime and several years after its fall, agrees: “There is evidence to suggest that the Taliban were unwilling to rise up. against the Kabul regime. , but the disrespectful and punitive treatment of foreign powers and the Afghan factions that have taken power has led some to take up arms and fight for their survival. In the years that followed, he adds, the disenchantment of the southern Pashtuns, the majority ethnic group among the Taliban, gradually increased support for the insurgents.

“The favorable treatment accorded by the government and its international advocates to certain ethnic groups, tribes and clans at the cost of marginalizing others, has prompted marginalized groups to support the Taliban,” Azam abounds. “This prompted the Taliban to present itself as a force capable of protecting the interests of the Pashtuns against the rulers of other ethnic groups who controlled most of the government’s decisive positions.

The discontent was compounded by widespread corruption; the waste of millions of dollars in foreign aid by both the Afghan authorities and some foreigners; the bad government, the failure to uphold the law and the impunity of faction leaders, as well as the infighting between the rulers in Kabul, a cocktail of opportunities for the rise of the Taliban.

Growing complaints from the population about the harsh living conditions and insecurity allowed the Taliban to extend their support in the south to the northern and northeastern regions, where they took city after city after another in recent years. In recent weeks, what has left in the hands of the government has only two important cities: the capital and Jalalabad, on the border with Pakistan.

External support

Ahmad Samin, former World Bank adviser, sums up the victories chained by the insurgency: “The current situation is the culmination of decades of poor leadership, corruption, internal political struggles, as well as the growing Kabul bubble, detached from the realities of the country. “. An example of the fragility of the political system is that in March last year two presidents took office in Kabul: Ghani and his political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, who rejected his electoral victory in September 2019. The deal between the two to share power it was delayed until last May, with the American withdrawal in the spotlight for the Taliban, ready to launch their offensive. The militia found themselves facing a collapsing army as, according to figures released this Saturday by The New York TimesOver the past decades, the United States has invested $ 83,000 million (roughly € 70,400 million) in weapons, equipment – which is now partly in the hands of the Taliban – and training with the idea. to leave forces capable of guaranteeing the security of the country. .

“Afghan soldiers have had to endure months of unpaid wages, lack of supplies and aid, and orders without rhyme or reason. They are disillusioned and exhausted, ”explains Samin. The insistence of the United States on seeking leadership from the Afghan commanders indirectly indicates this lack of leadership of the forces.

“Would we be here today if those who have held the highest leadership positions in the country over the past 20 years had not been dedicated to empowering and tolerating corruption and state plunder? The failure of Afghan political leaders should provoke as much anger as anything else, ”a tweet abounded this week. Shahrzad Akbar, chairman of the human rights commission appointed by the government.

In a country with a long history of determined popular struggle against foreign invaders such as Genghis Khan, English colonialists and the former Soviet Union, the Taliban are now considered the most powerful and effective guerrilla movement in the world. Afghan history. At least that’s what his brilliant advance on the pitch indicates.

Ambassador Barekzai attributes the organization and effectiveness of the Taliban to aid provided mainly by Pakistan, and in part by Iran, a country which, like Russia, has long opposed the US presence in Afghanistan.

Poverty and unemployment, especially among young people, are another factor that has facilitated the expansion of the Taliban. And now that they are approaching Kabul, there is a segment of the population that is particularly concerned: the women, who under the shield of the American occupation have enjoyed freedoms such as swimming, singing, working and running small businesses. for 20 years, as well as to occupy senior positions in the administration. “The Taliban is unlikely to tolerate the freedoms and rights we have enjoyed so far,” said Habiba Masoom, a 19-year-old university student, in a cafeteria in Kabul where boys and girls regularly go to smoke shisha. ).

Young model Nigara Sadaat, Miss Afghanistan 2020, says, for her part, that the spread of violence has already affected the activities of the industry in which she works: “People like me will not have space to live and work here. Many will try to leave ”.

Mahboba Saraj, director of the Afghan Women’s Network, also points the finger at the United States, where the sparked chaos fuels the debate around the withdrawal, the Republicans, who supported the exit, demanding more support from Joe Biden for the forces government. “In my opinion, one of the factors why the Taliban gained so much strength and took control of most of the Afghan provinces is the fact that the United States gave them the opportunity to do so, announcing their (unconditional) departure and when will they leave Afghanistan, ”says Saraj. “By giving them the opt-out date, you are actually putting the power in the hands of your opposition, because all they have to do is wait, and that is exactly what happened.” And this is shown by the map of the Taliban’s advance since mid-April, when Biden announced that he was maintaining the withdrawal already decided by his predecessor Trump, with fewer and fewer areas under government control.