Debt: the bilardist strategy is deployed

The first to move was the head of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce. After a final intervention in May, the entity did not act directly or indirectly in the Rofex dollar futures market. In the midst of the exchange rate storm at the end of June and mainly in July, the Centrale remained in expectation and without mobilizing on the Rofex, the most important futures market in the country, which throughout the period evolved upwards. However, it did so much more cautiously than other forex markets, with tenuous positive lines far removed from the revaluations of its first cousins ​​CCL and MEP.

The intention was to show the market that the operators of this fundamental market, in order to measure the expectations of trade and devaluation, did not envisage major alterations in the long term; and, one way or another, they perceived a force in that the policy against official currencies could be defended even in the first half of 2022. In short, without the BCRA intervening in the Rofex, the The future dollar maintained reasonable inflation ratios down from the current price of the currency as measured by the entity.

The second signal in this regard occurred between Thursday and Friday of last week (especially this last day), with the BCRA intervention on the government securities futures market. Through the MAE, the BCRA proposed a Discount Letter due in October, offering a real interest rate of nearly 40%, differentiating itself from the somewhat unsuccessful debt placement operation of the first week of August. .

The intention of the BCRA is arouse the interest of mutual funds; be active in the future public securities market; show a tendency towards rationality about interest in pesos and insist on allaying doubts about exchange rates in the medium and long term. They know in the entity that it is in these potential customers that there may be an interest in the demand for papers in local currency; knowing that yields are now at expected levels in the face of inflation.

The BCRA did its part to get investment funds interested and present at Wednesday’s auction. Now, to clarify interest and participation, From the Secretariat of Finance headed by Rafael Brigo, a menu of more enticing options was offered than those of the first week of August; with short-term options (until the end of the year or at the latest in January) and real interest rates. The intention to extend terms and obtain rapid cancellations of maturities in exchange for extension of maturities and lower interest is changed. Realism and efficiency have now been chosen. A new version of what this media defined yesterday as a “bilardista” strategy. In other words, and as an official office with footballing knowledge of the 80s and 90s explained yesterday, “you shouldn’t be afraid to hang on to the crossbar, until the tide turns and you can apply a little menotism “. “When would that be?” Asked the columnist. “We won the legislative elections, we closed with the IMF and we came out to turn the tide.”