Tensions rise in Brazil ahead of independence day marches convened by Jair Bolsonaro

Brazil is preparing to experience this Tuesday, its national holiday, a high voltage day with demonstrations convened by President Jair Bolsonaro, who seeks to mobilize his bases in full popularity and faces justice.

In the main cities, in particular in São Paulo and Brasilia, important security devices will be deployed to prevent possible excesses in the celebrations of independence, taking into account that on this same day There are also marches called against the far-right president..

“The time has come to say on the 7th that we have become independent (…) to say that we do not accept that someone in Brasilia wants to impose their willBolsonaro exclaimed during a speech last week.

It was a clear allusion to the justices of the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court against whom he has been at war for weeks after opening several investigations against him and his entourage, among others for disseminating false information.

On Friday, Bolsonaro went further and said protests would be an “ultimatum” for judges of the highest court. Saturday, he raised the possibility of an institutional “rupture”.

“Inflection point”

The former parachutist, whose popularity is low Largely because of his handling of the pandemic, which has left 580,000 dead in the country, he is planning the marches in a big way: announced his presence in the morning in Brasilia and in the afternoon in São Paulo, where he hopes to bring together “more than two million people”.

It’s hard to imagine such a crowd in the iconic Paulista Avenue, after during the last demonstrations the president gathered only a few tens of thousands in the most populous city in the country.

For Geraldo Monteiro, political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, the president is playing “all for everything” after having tightened the rope to the maximum with his recurring attacks against the electoral system, the Supreme Court and Congress.

“We’ve reached a point where everyone has to show their weapons, and that’s what Bolsonarism is going to try to do. They put a lot of energy into this protest, we just need to know if it will take a significant number of people onto the streets, ”he said.

According to, this day of mobilization could “mark a turning point”. If successful, Bolsonaro will offer a “show of force that can give him more leeway” and new impetus for the presidential elections of 2022, where polls suggest he is largely defeated by the former leftist president. Lula da silva, who has not yet confirmed his candidacy.

But in the event of a fiasco, the president will be “even more cornered”, at the risk of being abandoned by his political allies and the business world.

World leaders warn

On Monday, more than 150 parliamentarians, ministers and former presidents of 26 countries warned against Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s plans for an “insurrection” on September 7, in an open letter published by the Progressive International.

The statement warns that the marches “increase fears of a coup in the third largest democracy in the world” and denounce “the attacks on democratic institutions in Brazil in recent weeks” by Bolsonaro.

The letter, signed by numbers such as Noam Chomsky, Yanis Varoufakis, Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, Rafael Correa and former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, among others, point out that the conference promoted by the president is “An act of intimidation of the country’s democratic institutions” after President Bolsonaro himself called Brazil’s constitution “communist” and insisted on having a “necessary reaction” against the country’s Congress and Supreme Court. They also claim it was inspired by the Jan.6 assault on Capitol Hill in Washington by then-US President Donald Trump’s fan base.

“Calculated risk”

Chief Justice Luiz Fux expressed concern on Thursday over the belligerent tone of the president and his staunch supporters. “In a democracy, protests are peaceful and freedom of expression should not be synonymous with threats or violence,” he said.

For political scientist André Rosa, the risk of violence is real. “Faced with opposition groups, Bolsonarist militancy is very reactive, so they will surely want to go to war. The Bolsonarist side is not peaceful, it is a pro-arms group. There will be police officers on leave, ex-soldiers“He warned.

Rosa, a doctor in political psychology, does not exclude acts of vandalism, such as “broken glass at the Supreme Court”, located in the Plaza de los Tres Poderes in Brasilia, where the demonstration in favor of Bolsonaro will take place.

In the capital, the opposition march will start just three kilometers away, at the iconic TV tower. In São Paulo, it will be in the center, 5 kilometers from Avenida Paulista.

Bolsonaro’s bet is also risky because his assault on institutions was poorly digested by some of his closest allies, like the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira. “The president is aware of the responsibility he has and that he will be the only loser if there are riots,” he warned Thursday.

Bolsonaro “cannot control violence. It’s a risk you run, but it’s a calculated risk, ”Rosa added.

(With information from AFP / By Louis Genot)

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