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By mid-June, with the rest of the world experiencing low numbers of new coronavirus infections, South America was becoming the epicenter of the pandemic.
Seven of the 10 nations in the world with the most daily deaths per capita were in the region: Brazil’s rate was seven times that of India, while Colombia and Argentina had a figure equivalent to three times that recorded in the whole of the African continent.
With only 5% of the world’s population, South America had a per capita death rate equal to eight times the global number.
But that’s in the past.
At the end of June, the number of infections began to drop steadily, making the region a one of the regions of the world where the pandemic seems to be better under control.
Thus, while for this Monday the weekly average of confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants was 52 in the United Kingdom and 43 in the United States, Brazil reached only 8, Argentina at 6 and Colombia at 3. , according to figures from Our Data World.
Countries like Uruguay, which had 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants at the start of June, now have only 4; while Paraguay, which has recorded up to 40 cases, no longer even reaches 1 case per 100,000 inhabitants.
This decrease in infections has been essential for South America to be one of the regions in the world with the fewest cases of covid-19 today.
But how do you explain this sudden drop in infections in South America?
Between immunity and other unknowns
“The first thing I would say is that I think we are not entirely clearAnswers Andrés Vecino, health systems researcher at the Department of International Health at the John Hopkins School of Public Health (United States).
The researcher recalls that this is not the first time that there is a decrease in cases which seems to announce that the end of the pandemic is approaching and then there is another wave of infections which shows that it was not the case.
“It is important to say that we don’t know exactly what it is and that just because cases are declining now doesn’t mean it will happen in the future. I want to remember what happened in India, where there was a relatively low number of cases for its population and then we saw a sharp increase in cases with the delta variant, ”warns BBC expert Mundo.
In recent months, countries in South America have made progress in immunization.
Dr Carla Domingues, who led Brazil’s immunization program until 2019, recently issued a similar warning. “It is a phenomenon that we do not know how to explain,” said this epidemiologist to the New York Times.
However, specialists give some clues: among them, vaccination. Countries in South America have sped up vaccination rates in recent times, which many experts say may have helped curb infections.
Vecino agrees, but does not point only to vaccines but, more broadly, to the immunity acquired by the population of the region both through injections and infections.
“I think there is more or less a consensus that it is possible that the reduction in cases in South America is linked to a certain degree of immunity in the population,” he said.
The expert explains that the different vaccines that have been applied in the countries of the region are an important element to consider, as is the immunity acquired by those who have already had the infection.
“Many people in some of these countries have been infected. A recent study carried out in 12 cities in Colombia shows that the 89% of the inhabitants of these localities have already been infected. With this, we start to think that it is possible that in some places there are levels of infection so high that we are already starting to see a reduction in the disease, ”explains the expert.
Vecino warns that, since the population is not homogeneous, this data cannot be interpreted as that 9 out of 10 people that we meet on the streets of these cities already had covid-19, so it is not necessary. to trust.
“Individuals are linked in groups, then there may be groups of people who, for example, have not yet been infected or vaccinated And these groups of people can have epidemics if, for example, a highly transmissible variant like omega, like delta or gamma – the 3 that are already in Latin America – happens, so they can obviously cause an increase in cases and deaths, “he explains.
“That said, it is possible that the level of immunity gained from vaccines and past infections is one of the reasons we are seeing less transmission today,” he adds.
Apply the right measures
Ciro Ugarte, director of health emergencies for the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), confirms that there has been a decrease in cases and deaths in almost every country in South America except Venezuela.
Ugarte explains that PAHO is working with ministries of health and with experts in the region to study these trends, as well as the reasons why this decline has continued, and highlights the tightening of control measures after the increase. significant cases in the region. between the end of 2020 and the first months of 2021.
“Countries have put in place much stricter measures Regarding physical distancing, the movement of people, the compulsory use of masks, they started the vaccination and extended it to other groups, mainly those who were more at risk. All of this may partly explain this trend, ”Ugarte explains in response to a request from the BBC Mundo.
The director, however, cautioned the region against complacency.
“We have seen that when cases decrease, it is because we are doing it right. That is, we are implementing public health measures that have been proven time and time again to continue to serve “, he emphasizes.
“The worst thing that can happen to us and that can happen to the countries of South America is that now that they are with less cases relax the measures because it is a great opportunity for the virus to be transmitted from person to person, “he warns.
PAHO urges countries in the region to maintain precautionary measures to avoid contagion.
Thus, although the number of cases is low for the moment, Ugarte considers that we should not let our guard down:
“Our recommendation to the general population of South America who see that transmission is decreasing is to take into account that we are in this phase because the appropriate measures have been taken. Let’s not relax them. ”
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