Islamabad, Kabul and Washington: a puzzle that does not hold | International

Skirmishes, attacks and deaths do not cease in the daily life of the border region which separates northern Pakistan from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, life continues peacefully in the capital Islamabad, despite the river of relations with the White House growing darker and more turbulent. “Washington is very weakened after the collapse of the puppet army, the puppet government and the triumphal entry of Taliban guerrillas into Kabul. Pakistan has grown considerably stronger because of its close ties with the Taliban, ”explains Pakistani writer and intellectual Tariq Ali bluntly from London. The term “puppet government” is the same expression Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan used Wednesday in an interview with CNN in which he defended the Taliban.

Unaware of the interstate disputes, several street vendors display questionable sunglasses in downtown Islamabad. “American, American. Original, original,” is the guarantee and claim they proclaim in an attempt to attract potential buyers. They take them out of the bag and stroke them with the suede without convincing the clientele. The scene, at around the restaurant in Kabul, is not just unfolding as the Afghan crisis tightens the ties of relations between Pakistan and the United States.

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In addition, other regional powers are symbolically moving to obtain positions on the new board of directors. With funds from the new emirate blocked and the international community pressuring the Taliban to respect the rights of the people, neighbors and allies like Pakistan or China have already approved first aid shipments in an attempt to overcome the crisis. human.

The Administration chaired by Joe Biden remains in a weak position after the 20 years of war during which it led the international coalition in Afghanistan, according to the experts consulted. “Washington’s leadership has retreated while that of Islamabad has advanced” with “a friendly government in Kabul,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington. He is convinced that the current situation will make it difficult for the Democratic President to solve several problems such as the evacuation of the Americans who are still in Afghanistan, the delivery of humanitarian aid and the maintenance of some counterterrorism capacity against Al Qaeda. and the Islamic State. State). To achieve these goals, “cooperation with the Taliban” is necessary, says the analyst, despite the fact that the United States and the Afghan Sunni guerrillas have a common enemy in ISIS. Attacking members of these terrorist groups from their military bases in other countries will be “even more difficult now” but “the United States has no choice but to collaborate with the Taliban in the fight against the terrorism. And I don’t think that is happening, at least in a profound way ”.

“To expect them to be like any other developed country would be very naive and foolish.

Hamayoun Khan, Pakistani project coordinator for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation

Because they control the entire Afghan territory, which they did not achieve during their previous mandate between 1996 and 2001, “the Taliban are stronger today”, explains Hamayoun Khan, coordinator of the Pakistan project. for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. “Afghanistan has been a country mired in struggle for four decades. Most of those who rule have not enjoyed civilization, they have been in the mountains. To expect them to be like any other developed country would be very naive and stupid “.

For Tariq Ali, the war also ended up being won by “people who have been the targets of regular US and NATO bombings, drone attacks, torture and assassinations.” And he adds that “it was popular anger against the occupation that laid the foundation for the Taliban’s resurgence. Without that, his victory is inexplicable ”.

The Pakistani press broadcast on the cover Thursday the interview with Imran Khan in which he clearly expressed Biden’s estrangement. He did it just the day after the Pakistani president’s conversation with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

India wounded

The change of regime and the arrival of the Emirate, whose leaders already had close ties with Qatar and Turkey which have been strengthened, also increase the unknowns about regional rebalancing. “India’s position has weakened,” Tariq Ali said, referring to the region’s other nuclear power and the eternal enemy of Islamabad. “China is the country that is emerging as a key player in the region, flanked by Russia and Iran. The combination of its economic power and its geopolitical strategy is unmatched ”. The writer underlines the rapprochement of Tehran, the great Shiite power, to the Taliban and the possibility that its Constitution will inspire a new Afghan Magna Carta.

Michael Kugelman paints a consensual picture with the main actors who are closing ranks around the Taliban in an attempt to take advantage of “more stability and less terrorism”. The only exception, he also understands, is India, which “has long been concerned about the Taliban because of its close ties to Pakistan.” The deputy director of the Asia program of the Wilson Center think tank underlines that India “was the last regional actor to open channels” with the Taliban, making it less influential compared to the role of “its rivals Pakistani and Chinese”. This is why he calculates that “New Delhi runs the risk of being excluded from Afghanistan”.

“What the war on terror has achieved is to increase terrorism as we have seen in London, Paris or Madrid”

Tariq Ali, Pakistani writer and intellectual

In the tradition of the Afghan administration, the Taliban, without making it a pillar of their demands, never recognized the Durand line, which separated the Pashtuns and Baluchis. This demarcation, erected by the British in 1893, covers the current separation between Afghanistan and Pakistan over more than 2,600 kilometers. The instability around this border maintains its daily rhythm. In the last hours, according to the Pakistani newspaper The news, seven soldiers and five “terrorists” died in clashes in the region of Waziristan, in the north-west of the country.

“For the first time in nearly 20 years, Pakistan will have a friendly government in Kabul and have the opportunity to help shape policy and develop its government through its close ties to the Taliban,” said Michael Kugelman. Hamayoun Khan does not see it so clearly. “That the Taliban will do what Pakistan tells them, they don’t do it,” he adds, sitting in his office in Islamabad. “This idea that Pakistan has a command with which it rules Afghanistan is very negative” despite the fact that “it is true that Pakistan has influence,” said Foundation analyst Friedrich Ebert. He gives a few examples of this historical permeability, such as the fact that his country welcomes wounded Taliban to provide them with medical care or is a refuge for their families as well as a territory where several million Afghan refugees live. Even so, he thinks he has less leverage now that he has a government that controls the whole country for the first time. Despite everything, the head of the Pakistani secret service established himself in Kabul while the executive had not been appointed and was seen in front of journalists.

What the war on terrorism has achieved is to increase terrorism as we have seen in London, Paris or Madrid. The United States either destroyed or commercialized the old Arab world, ”explains Tariq Ali. “The only effective strategy against terrorism is to end the conditions that created it. There should be no more Western troops in the world of Islam, and pressure from the US and the EU should increase for Israel to end its occupation. “

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