without dollar tied, Guzmán will seek at least 185,000 million dollars

The difficulties in sustaining the debt refinancing rate in the first half of the year have increased the weight of the central bank’s aid to the financing of the Treasury in recent months. As of September 20, Economía had asked the BCRA for $ 200,000 million in profits for the month, the same amount as in August. Thus, the participation of the monetary issue in the financing of the treasury rose to 70% of the total accumulated during the year and moved away from the objective of 60% set by Guzmán. In this context and in view of the measures announced (and to be announced), the market is speculating with an emission shock to come.

However, official sources have indicated that the objective remains to end the year as close as possible to the budgeted financing mix: 60% aid from the BCRA and 40% net debt. The premise is that a higher impression of the pesos would heat up the pressures on the dollar. In this sense, within the Economic Cabinet, they ensure that what is discussed within the ruling party is an acceleration of the execution of the games currently under-executed and not a deficit greater than that initially planned. However, to cover it according to the financial composition established by Guzmán, an increase in net funding will be required in loans from the Ministry of Finance, which has become more complicated in recent months.

This is where the auctions of tomorrow become relevant. In the first two auctions in September, the Treasury placed $ 121,500 million, which implies a refinancing percentage of monthly maturities of 105% and net debt close to $ 8,000 million, which the economy will seek to increase. .

Offer details

So, as he counted Scope, the Finance team (led by Rafael Brigo and Ramiro Tosi) waited until the end of Friday’s session to define the menu of instruments for this Tuesday to see the evolution of prices and rates of sovereign debt on the secondary market , which in the previous weeks had been marked by volatility. Finally, officials opted for a combo of peso securities and left out dollar-linked bonds, which had captured 46% of the amount awarded in the month’s first tender. The demand for these instruments linked to the official exchange rate has intensified in recent times due to increasing investor speculation with a possible devaluation after the parliamentary elections, which the government categorically excludes.

Finally, a certain recovery in the prices of fixed-rate and indexed securities during the last rounds made it possible to lower secondary market yields (which had reached more than 6% in real terms on certain instruments). Thus, they came a little closer to the top of the real 4% that Finances validated in previous calls for tenders. This ended up leaning the secretariat towards a menu of nominated titles in local currency.

Concretely, tomorrow, the shortest fixed rate bonds will return, with a duration of three months. Ledes will reopen in December and January with no minimum or maximum price, while a new Ledes will be offered in February with a floor price of $ 852.75 for every $ 1,000 of face value. Official sources told Ámbito that the intention is to set a real rate signal between 1% and 1.25% for this type of instrument.

In contrast, inflation-linked (Lecer) bills through May and July 2022 will be reopened, with minimum prices of $ 1,131.67 and $ 1,022.34, respectively, which support an actual rate cap for the debt. indexed. Finally, the BADLAR Private Rate Bond increased by 5.25% of the nominal annual rate will be reopened to expire in February 2023 (TB23P), which will also be released without a base price or a maximum price.

“Lecer rates are lower than secondary market rates, indicating that they are unwilling to validate them, but not by much. I think the most interesting will go through the Lecer in July at 5.2% plus CER, which is a good rate for local banks (at this time and since it is a primary tender, they can l ‘use to integrate minimum reserves) “, I consider Nicolas rivas, BAVSA trader.

The two Lecers will be the only ones that the banks will be able to integrate as mandatory reserves to replace the Leliq, according to the BCRA regulations which allowed them to migrate these assets to public securities with a residual maturity of between 180 and 450 days. While all the invoices proposed tomorrow will be part of the day after the second round of the call for tenders, intended for financial institutions and stock exchanges participating as candidates in the Market Makers program. There they will be able to subscribe up to 20% of the amount allocated in the first round and this will be the opportunity to increase the net balance for Economía. TB23P, which is not on the schedule, will not be available on Wednesday.

“You don’t see any major change from the last tenders. They again offered discounted short letters and slightly longer CERs. Those who disappeared again are tied to the dollar, although they had a good result. The two shortest LEDs do not have a minimum price, we will see if they decide to validate very high rate increases ”, raised Joaquin waldman, research manager at Ecolatina.

The economist stressed that it would be important to expand the financing in the market to avoid an increase in issuance with the assistance margin from the Central Bank obtained with the accounting mechanism for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) sent by the IMF. As this newspaper reports, thanks to a current holding of the SDR between the Treasury and the BCRA, and the placement of an instrument not transferable to the monetary authority, the Treasury will cancel the transitional advances (AT) and will have a premium funding through this. average of just over $ 500,000 million. Official sources point out that this move does not imply a change in the 2021 financial plan and that it should only ask for around 200,000 million additional dollars from TA. But to achieve this, investments in Finance will be decisive.

If this scenario materializes, there would be more room to resolve the 2022 financial program, which according to the draft prepared by Guzmán (which will be examined in Congress) plans to reduce the weight of the issue to 37%. This would imply an aid from the Centrale to the Treasury for 1.08 billion dollars, exclusively via AT. “It would be important to save some of the space made with SDRs for next year, because they will need it,” added Waldman.