Strange uncertainty in Germany: Angela Merkel’s successor will define himself between the “semaphore” coalition or “Jamaica”

(Chicago – Special for Infobae) – On Sunday there was clear winner of the parliamentary elections in Germany. His name is Olaf Scholz. Had revive his almost inert Social Democratic Party (SPD) in just a few months of the campaign’s start and received more votes than any other candidate. He managed to maximize his chances to the point of being able to reach the Chancellery within a few weeks. He led the resurrection of his party and many think he deserves the chance to form a coalition government which ends 16 years of reign of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Corn among them is not Armin Laschet, the candidate who this time led the CDU, and who although having lost the election – by a very small margin of 1.6% – is convinced that it is about a “technical link” and that he could also form a government coalition.

This leaves everything in the hands of the parties which obtained the third and fourth places: the Green Party (PV) and the Free Democrats (FDP). They will ultimately decide who will lead the new government. In their hands is the fate of Scholz and Laschet. For now – and until the need becomes heresy – it is clear that the far right of the AfD is left out, which garnered significantly fewer votes than in the previous elections in 2017, and the Left Party which had its worst result in many years.

Social Democrat Scholz feels entitled to have the first option to form a government and said in his message between Sunday night’s celebrations in Berlin: “The citizens of this country want change. They want the next chancellor to be the SPD candidate”. But the conservative Laschet does not want to give in. Although his party received the lowest percentage of the vote in its history in post-war Germany, Laschet at least managed to stem the rapid decline of his party in the last days before the election. He helped the CDU and its sister Bavarian party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – collectively known as the Union – will not fall below 20%, and that leaves open the possibility of governing. He also believes he has the right to build the next coalition. “A vote in favor of the Union is a vote against a federal government led by the left. And so we will do our best to build a government under the leadership of the Union“, noted.

This marks the political stalemate that the polls had already predicted during the campaign. A draw which probably leads Germany to several weeks of laborious negotiations during which different coalitions will be surveyed. These elections also show that the era of strong parties and large electorates is over, as are the era of stable bipartite coalitions. Most future ruling coalitions are likely to consist of three parties, which will make finding a compromise even more difficult than in the past. “It almost seems like voters don’t want either party to be able to govern as they would like. As if they wanted all the leaders of the different parties watch each other so no one is rushing. The perfect form of control and balance ”, analyzed the prestigious German magazine The mirror.

The two possible coalitions which are considered the most likely are the one known in German political jargon as the “Traffic lights”, by the colors that identify the parts: the SPD, Greens and FDP trio (respectively red, green and yellow); wave “Jamaica”, also by the tone of the groups which coincide with those of the flag of this country and which would be integrated by the Union, the Greens and the FDP (black, green and yellow respectively). There is a third option which is the same as that which has reigned as “the grand coalition” for the last eight years between the Union and the SPD. Although both parties made it clear during the campaign that they had no desire to reform such a government, let alone as a junior partner. What then is the future of Germany in the post-Merkel era? A Conservative-Liberal government with a green tint? Or an SPD-Greens coalition with a liberal FDP corrective?

FDP leader Christian Lindner made it clear at the start of the campaign that preferred an alliance with the Union under a possible Chancellor Laschet. The two are friends and work well together. In addition, the two parties have been united for four years in a government coalition in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, of which Laschet is governor. And there are great ideological coincidences. The two parts they want to avoid tax increases and they have a climate strategy that relies heavily on technological improvements combined with reduced red tape for building wind or solar farms, for example.

So, the Greens’ position will be decisive. But there are internal differences. While party leader and candidate Annalena Baerbock has previously said that sees greatest political coincidence with the SPD, party co-chair Robert Habeck is a supporter of keep all options open. In Berlin, it is assumed that Habeck wants to be the next Minister of the Economy, regardless of the government partner. And although the Greens have a difficult position in a coalition with the Union and the FDP, they could do a lot in the negotiations. For example, they could end up with many more ministries than they would like due to their electoral weight and manage everything that has to do with the environment.

The next will be days of high-sounding declarations and feverish negotiations. Scholz and Lachet will both want to sound “lucky”. They will have to be broad but firm, negotiators with clear limits, and with the conviction that not only will they be able to lead Germany, but that they will also be able to be at the forefront of the locomotive of the European Union. In short, beyond the colors of the coalition, may the next Chancellor look as much as possible like Angela Merkel, the woman who has led Germany so well for the past 16 years.

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