Slight rebound of the dollar in the exchange preview that seeks to end the race

dollar
bounced back slightly yesterday, after operating two days in the low corner cornered by the adjustment that the


Central Bank
(BCRA) launched the monetary tightening in mid-June. The currency closed at an average of $ 28.78 for sale to the public, 11 cents above its previous closing level.

The rise, which was recorded in a day with little volume (only US $ 325 million, 57% due to the limitations of one day without reference to the domestic market (it was a holiday) in the United States), it was less than the almost 1% that marked the ticket in the wholesale segment, where it went from $ 27.80 to $ 28, 10 "For holidays in the United States, most Agreements were agreed to settle tomorrow [por hoy]. "The ticket reached a high of $ 28.16 before being readjusted, but the concrete is that it was above $ 28." , summed up the operator Gustavo Quintana, PR Cambios.

This advance left the peso in line with the trend with which moved the remaining currencies of the region, which is slightly depreciated against the dollar (yield 0.25% the Chilean peso and 0.45% the Brazilian real, for example), although the adjustment of local trade has been slight. higher, leaving a gain of 0.9% in terms of exchange rate competitiveness.

defined the exchange rate at which Treasury bills (LETE) can subscribe today with pesos, which will be exchangeable for the first time.


Lebac
(can also be integrated with dollars), which was set at $ 28.0317 according to the "A" communication 3500 BCRA, which establishes the reference exchange rate.

This auction, scheduled to close the day before yesterday, it was extended, among other things, because the fall the dollar recorded in those days meant starting from a 2% loss to those who wanted buy the LETE with pesos and discourage their demand. This has led the government to postpone the auction to try to ensure its success, since with this instrument it aims to meet its financial needs for the year and, at the same time, reduce the stock of Lebac, huge debt badumed by the BCRA. which identifies today as the driving force of the race. That's why his obsession to limit it.

"Much of the result will depend on how the dollar evolves tomorrow [por hoy] .If it declines, it conspires against the level of membership, whether it is maintained or increased, ultimately it is designed as an operation for those seeking coverage, "said economist Guido Lorenzo of ACM consultancy.

Operators, on the other hand, believe that there are other reasons that will encourage membership. They evoke, for example, the incentive to exchange valued by some local and foreign investment funds, who would prefer to "deliver the Lebac because they badume that they will lose." liquidity "and move on to LETE. "I have clients who have been consulting to sell futures contracts that they had taken to cover the devaluation and keep the title in dollars, because before they bought the Lebac at 27% and the covered with 22%, which left them a margin of 5% in dollars, but now, with the volatility that exists, the futures are expensive and they believe that it will bring them more, "explained the nation in a investment bank

Once, the incentive to trade involves the possibility of achieving currency hedging when its overall exchange position was limited, after two cuts to 5% of the exchange rate. Its capital is that the same BCRA regulation that ordered the last cut, in mid-June, allows them to bring this exposure to 30% if they incorporate it into LETE. [19659010LastnighttheMinistryofFinanceandFinancereleasedpricestochangeLebacwhichendeduprdefinethetermsoftheexchange

First signal in rates

The other data that left the day was the change in trend that began to suggest the rates, after the jump recorded between Monday and Tuesday, which placed them at unrealizable levels for any activity.

This was verified in both which gives the Lebac in the short term (fell from 61% to 58.4%) as in the interbank (
call money ), which fell from 55 to 47.5% per year for day-to-day pbades. Although they remain at very high levels, they constitute the first setback after the new turn of a tourniquet that has brought down sharply the stock of speculative potential pesos (see chart). "It was a gross adjustment in demand for non-transactional pesos," says Gabriel Caamaño, of Ledesma Consulting. "The additional rate hike was circumstantial and a direct consequence of the increase in bank reserves, which reduced the cash flow in pesos," said Pablo Castagna, director of personal portfolio.