They warn that the agreement with the IMF has hardened the 2019 budget target

Expectations of weak growth in economic activity and the ambitious slowdown in inflation agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will complicate compliance with the goal Budget in 2019, warns a report from the In this regard, the consultation indicates that the 2019 budget target is fraught with the reduction in the inflation target set with the 39, led by Christine Lagarde.

"The agreement with the IMF tightened the fiscal objective of 2019, shifting the primary public sector from 2.2% of GDP to 1.3% of GDP , however, by accounting for a portion of revenues from the ANSES Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) as income and the opportunity to increase the deficit by the social safeguard, the necessary fiscal effort would be a little weaker, "says Ecolatina.

The consultant notes that the situation is aggravated because the executive effort will fall on the reduction of primary spending." The cuts will be concentrated in a few posts : public employment, economic subsidies, transfers to the provinces and public works ", remarks the report

"The risk of the dynamics proposed by the executive lies in falling into a vicious circle of more adjustment and less activity which requires further cuts in expenses due to lower revenues The achievement of the budget objective depends on growth: the economy has entered recession and we do not know when it will come out, says the consultant. [19659002] Because the pension mobility formula by which social benefits are adjusted is based on inflation Finally, the more the deceleration of price increases will be deep, the more the actual increase of 60% of primary expenditure will be important, says the report.