In 2019, the crop will add more dollars than the rest of the year this year

The 41st Anniversary of the Mediterranean Foundation has helped more than 500 businessmen and leaders to hear, from the experts, the predominant role of agriculture in the Argentine economy and how , although having been the main anchor point PBI as a result of the drought, seems almost the only hope of a rebound next year.

However, "in Argentine history there has never been two droughts and always, after a bad year of performance, the following year has increased," said Arriazu. That, plus a favorable economic scenario for grains due to Chicago's "decoupled" prices, is a 2018/19 crop that could yield up to $ 11 billion.

The experienced economist Ricardo Arriazu was the most enlightened in this regard: he stated that the harvest of each year would bring $ 7.5 billion of direct revenues to the private sector, which represents 0.4% GDP. But if we add to that what does not fall in other regions, the damage to the general economic activity climb to two points of the gross product.

In total, agricultural value added will rise to around $ 40 billion, even above $ 35,500 million in the 2016/17 record

Central rebound

Before Arriazu, the economic panel who organized the Mediterranean included the participation of the director of the Central Bank, Enrique Szewach, who ratified the vision of the lending mother: the short-term recession is a consequence of the drought, but at the end of the year a rebound will begin thanks to the increase in wheat planting, an aspect that was emphasized by President Mauricio Macri

. On which the Central Bank is working, she estimates that agricultural GDP will collapse by 25% in the second quarter, which will result in a 3.1% decline in the overall economy.

But the third quarter will already mark 33% in the field, which will help the total gross product to increase by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter.

In summary: "If agriculture is recovering as expected, the year will end with stagnation or a slight decline. growth, "said Szewach