Due to the sharp decline of the dollar, the carry trade was revived in July and left profits of 9.7%

Due to the sharp decline of the dollar and still high rates in pesos, the financial bike was revived in July and the carry trade has left a gain of 9.73% in dollars on the month.

With the dollar depreciating 5.3% and yields of nearly 4% for the short-term Lebac last month, who sold their dollars in early July to bet on the peso rates, have took a juicy reward of nearly 10% in C but was a risky gamble after the mid-June exchange rate crisis and the volatility that the exchange rate still showed at the beginning of last month

"If we Look back, it's a However, when making the decision at the end of June, when you had implied rates in the Rofex at 50%, Lebac rates also at these levels and you did not know not where the exchange rate overrun could end, the truth is that it was a very aggressive, very risky game said Nery Persichini, chief investment officer of GMA Capital.

July was the second month of the year when rates managed to beat the dollar. it had been in March, but the difference had been much smaller and the carry trade showed a gain of 1.8 percent.

This time, the sharp decline of the dollar has boosted returns. The US dollar fell 5.3% in July against the peso, cornered by the monetary tightening that the BCRA has done.

The appreciation of the peso was also reinforced by an international context more favorable to emerging currencies. In this scenario, the Mexican peso appreciated by 6.8%, while the Brazilian real rose 3.29% and the Chilean peso by 2.78%.

"The stabilization of the exchange rate, added to the monetary policy of the Central Bank, with the decision to increase reserve requirements, made it possible to reduce the pesos in the street and, with the feeling that the rate Exchange rate was average, we checked the exchange rate appreciation.It gave reasons to overcomplicate things and allowed to calm down on the front of the exchange, "Persichini said.

"With this stabilization of expectations, you could then have recoveries across the spectrum of investments in pesos." For the first time since November 2017, the one that bet the dollar in July was lost.

The US dollar closed last month at $ 27.41 on the wholesale market, down $ 1.44 from the end of June, already averaging $ 28.03 in blackboards. banks, which meant a monthly minimum of 1.54 pesos.

Meanwhile, the last day of July, Lebac's short-term rate on the secondary market closed at 45.25%, while the yield of the letter expiring in September ended at 44.95%.

Although in the market they consider that the monetary crisis has already pbaded, they do not exclude a new volatility for the type of change in the short and medium term as the Federal Reserve normalizes its rates and, from the At the local level, the government is moving forward with the adjustment required by the IMF.