The dollar closed close to $ 40 and indicates the Leliq – Diario El Ciudadano and the region

The US note marked Friday the fourth consecutive rise.

The dollar jumped again Monday and came back very close to 40 pesos. The North American currency is exchanged at 39.97 euros for the sale, 1.40 pesos more than the closing last Friday. Economists in Rosario badyzed the causes of this new increase, linked to the non-renewal of the Leliq total in November, which left some 120,000 million pesos in dollars pbaded from Friday to Monday.

For the purchase, the dollar was located at 37.60 pesos on average. The greenback had begun trading on Monday with a dip of 8 cents, but it erased the decline and finally rose 1.40 pesos, for its fifth consecutive day of hike.

The dollar has not reached these values ​​since September, when Luis Caputo left the presidency of the Central Bank to take over from Guido Sandleris. On the last Friday of this month, the greenback reached the record 42 pesos and the following Monday, the money market exchange rate plan debuted, so that it oscillates between 35 and 44 pesos.

The economist Federico Fiscella said The citizen that after the last renewal of Leliqs, on November 18, "120,000 million pesos in dollars became dollars between Friday and today (this Monday)".

In addition, it linked the fall in the interest rate, which went from 75% to 62%, which has left the financial investors behind the peso. "The government tried to lower the interest rate just when the dollar was moving in the waterline.It was very dangerous because it's an unstable capital that takes this kind of decisions at all times.The balance was very fragile and the result is the following, "said the economist.

Fiscella expects that the dollar will close in the next few days at the maximum exchange rate, set at 44 pesos. He sees a feasible balance only if the government raises the interest rate again, which would be contradictory, as he understood. "It would be weird if they put the rate back up, but it's the only alternative I see to stabilize the dollar, and with that rate it could continue to go up, even above the rate limit." exchange rate, "he said.

For his part, Esteban Guida, of the People's Foundation of the South, agreed with Fiscella that the non-renewal of 100% of the Leliq had increased the dollar. To this, he added "the strongest demand at the end of the year".

Guida questioned the monetary policy that "has achieved artificial stability". "This was due to the arrival of the IMF's dollars and a very sharp rise in the interest rate.This supposed stability has not changed the situation of weakness of the Argentine economy, but the l & # 39; He added that it was a matter of days, "he said.

The economist born in Rosario pointed out that it "is impossible to get out of this situation of madness in a fully liberalized foreign exchange market because there are no rules of the game".

"The government is in an impbade and now depends exclusively on external financing, which is the only thing that makes the economy survive today," he warned.

Alejandro Bonalumi also highlighted the 120,000 million pesos not renewed Leliq. "The dollar is controlled with a high-rate artificial respirator, and as the Central Bank lowers it every day, it's transferred to dollars," he said.

By the way, the economic reporter pointed out that "the government was looking for a quote a little higher than the floor of the swap band". He also argued for political reasons: "The government is weakening and the opposition is growing, what the market does not like".

stagflation

The record 42 pesos reached by the dollar last September triggered prices and inflation, according to Indec, has already accumulated 39.5% since the beginning of the year. This new increase in the US currency will once again have an impact on the cost of living, according to Fiscella: "When it rose to 40 pesos, prices were adjusted but not dropped when the dollar fell. he's back at 40, there will surely be new raises, so why did they let him reach the age of 35? "asked the Rosario economist.

At the same time, Guida felt that Argentina was in a process of "stagflation" and that the dollar had a lot to do: "There is no demand and prices are rising in the same way. many of the economy's prices are tied to the dollar.Increase will accelerate despite the sharp recession. "