The dollar has reached another leap, around $ 40 and could put the rate down

It recorded the largest increase in the Sandleris era, which rose more than $ 2.50 in two days and returned to levels recorded early in the plan. It has fallen to 1164 million USD and will exceed 26 000 million USD. will leave behind the 2008 maximum

The

dollar

not only ratified but also accelerated yesterday the upward trend that has emerged in recent days in the local market, recording the highest nominal increase ($ 1.45) and percentage (3.9%) of the Sandleris era, which has returned its rating for sale to the public at a level very close to $ 40.

This new jump, the second highest in a row at 3%, confirms that the distension climate that had been installed at the beginning of October – with the launch of the flotation system delimited by bands in parallel with a monetary adjustment – has appeared. by big clouds. This situation also raises doubts about the continuity of the downward adjustment that was testing interest rates, going from 71.7% to 61.2% (closing yesterday) in one month.

Operators and badysts agree that the rebound in the bill, which began 15 days ago in a trendy way, had begun to be sponsored by the government.

Central Bank (BCRA)

-and the mission of

MFIs

– by exposing their discomfort to accept the monetary expansion resulting from the purchase of reserves, although this is provided for in the agreed program. This opportunity would open if the dollar pierced the trading floor, which was starting at $ 34 but now stands at $ 35.89 for the 3% monthly update applied up to $ 35.89. at the end of the year.

The official signal was followed by a resurgence of global risk aversion (reflected by the 3.24% decline in the US 10-year rate from 3.24% to 10 years) and a series of other factors. domestic economic and political policies that helped to reinvigorate dollarization. All of this converged so that, in the opinion of badysts and operators, a still sensitive market would be established.

"The break occurs when the market has been convinced that the dollar would not break the bottom band: it was the signal that revived dollarization," said Norberto Sosa, director of Investing in the Stock Market (IB).

"To this is added a combination of global factors (inclement weather that increases the risks generally emerging) and local (increasing political uncertainty, low rates), which led to what we saw between Friday and today. hey, "he adds.

For Alejandro Rodriguez, director of economic affairs at Ucema, the bill has accelerated its response because peso rates "do not seem so attractive to some" and that the continued increase in country risk shows that the plan has The foreigner has not gained credibility. committed by the IMF.

His colleague Gabriel Zelpo, chief economist of the consulting firm Elypsis, estimates that this jump is a consequence of the first week of easing that has known the new monetary policy, favoring a strong expansion via Lebac and Leliq. "They had a game to inject pesos without circumventing the monetary goal, and the feeling is that they were trying to get too close to the 0% percentage point, maybe that would result in a break in the rate reduction, "he warns.

Again the vacuum cleaner

In this regard, the day's data indicated that the BCRA, which had expanded the monetary base by some $ 80 billion for Leliq's partial renewals, had been careful yesterday not to let loose pesos again.

In addition, once the market closed, the entity sent a message to operators: "The BCRA will absorb any excess liquidity that may exist in the coming days to ensure a further overvaluation of his monetary goal, "repeated the message from there.

This reinforced the presumption that the downward adjustment process that tested the rates, and maintained at an adjustment of 27 basis points also yesterday, could pause.

Operators emphasize the reaction that the local market usually shows whenever the dollar rises for a few days. "This leads to the bid to retract by speculation at a time when demand is boosted by rising, resulting in a correction," explained the head of a local bank table.

"It was a complex wheel because the system for which the banks operate has changed, which has distorted prices and expanded the
spreads between buying and selling, in a wheel motivated by the demand of companies who want to anticipate the end of the month against Friday's inactivity and doubts about Thursday's operations, "said operator Fernando Izzo, of ABC, in Allusion to the increase of 32.5% of the amount made yesterday (reaches 723.7 million US dollars).

With yesterday's advance, the dollar has risen by $ 2.55 in two days, returned to price levels that had not been visible since October 1 (day of launching the new currency plan and monetary) and has advanced by 7.2% so far in November.

All this makes him the best investment of the month – as he has been for a good part of the year – and leaves about double the average income that an investor gets for a term fixed bank.