The fixed term that Manuel regretted in two days

"Now that the dollar has risen, I'm wondering what would be the point of having so much sought after a good rate to make a term deposit.If I spent in dollars, I was making money," says Manuel, a dentist which until yesterday was happy because with 200,000 pesos, he took the equivalent of a monthly rent: 8,055 pesos to Banco Nación, who pays 49% annual interest.

He says that if he had bought dollars while he was at 36.50 pesos and that he was selling them now, he would have made a difference of 16,500 pesos, double his interest. .

First of all, nothing is so simple. That is to say, with Monday's newspaper, we are all the first to decide on investments. Because this reasoning is also used when things turn in the back, that is to say that for who bought nearly 42 pesos in September and a month had dollars at 36.50. The fixed term performance has the following advantage: it's fixed, you know how much you earn or how much, finally, you have stopped earning compared to other investments.

As many economists point out, it may be that the wheat harvest in December and the upcoming disbursement of the Monetary Fund make abundant supply and green yield lower.

But the rise of the dollar, which rose 1.40 pesos, has saved some things. The first is that the devaluation of the peso is not fully controlled. That is to say that the Sandleris-Lagarde plan pbaded the first exam, but it did not go beyond: a first examination. It is still necessary to conclude that this monetary plan works and, even more, to celebrate in advance that whoever has pesos chooses to continue in pesos.

For many, the rise in the dollar of yesterday is explained by two reasons: abnormal operations (last Thursday in the United States, days of stop of the public banks, Friday 30 on the eve of the G- 20 and seasonality of the end of the year). months) and the rest of the 120 billion pesos last Tuesday that did not renew Lebac. The central party then celebrated that the dollar had not moved, but it could move now.

For others, investors are returning to the dollar as they anticipate an imminent rate reduction. In fact, the power plant has brought those of the Leliq from the top of 73% to 61.23% (yesterday followed them) and it is out of date if the Market Expectations Survey (REM), which will be known on the 4th December, gives inflation prospects down, can lower the rate below the scandalous 60%. If the carry trade will end (bring in dollars from the outside, sell them to make pesos and buy back dollars), those who know it will go before the dollar rises or understand that 61 , 23% (yes, 61!) This is not more business.

Yesterday's hike may also respond to a generalized depreciation of emerging currencies. But it is a strong sign that the plant must be extremely cautious about the low interest rates it anticipates. Inflation measures for November and December will only cool if the dollar remains under control in the lower flotation zone. But above all, it is the expectations of recovery that are modified if the dollar becomes indomitable again.