Even a successful cyber monday in the United States will not stimulate the market

According to estimates, US buyers will spend $ 7.8 billion on cyber Monday -A record number-, which will give impetus to the strong season of purchase of Fiestas. Something that Wall Street probably ignores.

Even a full fledged Fiesta will not distract the market from rising interest rates, which could hurt next year's home and car sales and the war. commercial. more and more intense between the United States and China, which is expected to slow global economic growth. In September, US President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports of about $ 200 billion. He planned to raise this tax to 25% in January, which would drive up prices.

The fear of a slowdown in consumer spending in 2019 outweighs any positive sign of a strong Fiesta, said Tom Forte, an badyst at DA Davidson & Co.

"Consumers are expected to bear a large portion of the cost of tariffs in the second half of 2019 because of rising product costs," he said. "Rising interest rates could limit spending on expensive products."

estimates

Companies like Amazon.com Inc., Walmart Inc., and Target Corp., struggling to capture online spending for Fiestas, may not receive an immediate reward in market value. According to estimates, US buyers will spend $ 124.1 billion on the Internet in November and December, up 14.8 percent from the same period last year, according to Adobe.

Purchases of Black Friday, which is traditionally the best day to sell electronic products, amounted to $ 6.220 million, or 23.6% more than the same period last year, show the data d & # 39; Adobe. According to forecasts, spending on Cyber ​​Monday, which is normally the best day to sell toys, will increase by 17.6%.

Total spending on Fiesta retail products – in-store and online – will increase more than 5% in November and December for the second year in a row, which is the first time since the Great Recession began around 10 years. said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. Investors may be worried if they can keep up this pace, even if it is based on low unemployment and wage growth rather than the mbadive credit card recourse that provoked the financial crisis, he said. Johnson.

"The strong consumer spending and retail sector we are seeing now comes from this healthy foundation, far more sustainable than the 12 year credit bubble," Johnson said.