Private salaried employment recorded its first decline in 19 months and expectations improved

The sudden change in expectations generated by the rise in the exchange rate between the end of April and the end of September, as well as the concentration of tariff increases, while the wage-buying capacity was deteriorating, had for the first time negative effect on expectations. job creation and at the end of the third quarter, at the first drop in Total private paid employees registered in the overall economy: down 0.6%, to settle at 6.2 million people.

And although this is the first regression in 19 months and after 5 years of sustained deceleration in the rate of net additions, José Anchorena, National Director of Labor Studies and Statistics of the Ministry of Labor and Employment , which now reports to the Ministry of Labor Production and Manpower, pointed out: "Employment has resisted, has been reduced by 70,000 jobs in the formal economy of 12.2 million people, but on this total 64,000 were monotributists of the agricultural social type that do not finish the reempadronamiento, more than in September 2016. "

The manager added to the already traditional meeting with the press, in which he participated Infobae, that "in the private sector, the net decrease was 2,000 workers, 15,000 fewer employees and 13,000 more than the self-employed, although this is far from the previous scenario of seven quarters of growth".

Anchorena highlighted one of the highlights of September: the first decrease in the total number of people employed in the public sector, or 0.1%, or 4,400 people, to 3.16 million salaried positions. attributed to "the effect of the fiscal agreement with the provinces, that is, the effect of the policies".

This was the first contraction in the total number of workers in the public administration since the launch of monthly statistics by the then Ministry of Labor in January 2012.

In private homes too, surveillance measures were taken by the national government, with policies of persuasion of unregistered persons from owners in private, high-income, undeclared neighborhoods,
Work and AFIP.

Bail in the private sector

Among the private sector employees, the official statistics showed a contraction of 35,600 jobs, but "it is still 35,000 higher in the same month of 2016 and there is a strong heterogeneity due to the effects of relative price changes, such as changes and rates, at the level of activity and provinces, "said José Anchorena.

"If you think the activity drops by 5.6%, the overall drop in employment of 0.6% reveals a very low downward elasticity." The job therefore resists and the employers may consider a recovery of aggregate demand, "added the National Director of Labor Studies and Statistics of the Ministry of Labor and Employment.

On the contrary, the first signs of improvement in agricultural activity, both extensive and regional, related in this case to the increasing competitiveness of currencies, and to the maturing of investments in the Vaca Muerta 's energy reservoir have allowed an increase in employment. 1.6% and 5.1%; and also fish 3.6 percent.

Turning short-term expectations

In accordance with the balance of private salaried employment with 6 declining sectors and 9 rising, employer expectations for the quarters of November to February show a slightly positive balance after six months of sharp decline.

"The October Expectations Survey still shows a monthly decline of 0.4% in the GBA, but not in the interior of the country, which is a leading indicator of the rapid recovery that is then transferred to the big cities, "said the manager.

And even if it is perceived a slight rebound in business expectations, after several months of decline and if the uncertainty is auspicious, it remains very low, "warned Anchorena, because we are still waiting for it. that comparisons from one year to the next be recorded with negative variations, probably until the first quarter of next year.

"What is starting to be seen now are the movements from September to November, where we observe improvements in the macroeconomic order that allow us to see a horizon with better expectations and a change in the economy. 39; mood, and an increase in overall activity compared to the previous month, as has shown the indicator of the Ferreres study ", concluded Anchorena.