The complex engineering that María Eugenia Vidal needs to separate the election of Buenos Aires – 24/12/2018

Political mathematics that treat the esteem of the planet Vidal in 20% of chances to unveil the election of Buenos Aires so that the governor and the mayors, as well as legislators and councilors, are voted on their own date, different from that of the president.

The governor is seduced by this option, Mauricio Macri does not exclude him and Marcos Peña, chief of staff and estratego cambiamita, veto, although, they say to the government, he is now shown less strong than a few weeks ago.

By the way: without an inter-PRO political pact, without the consent of Macri and Peña- the chances of separating the elections tendency to zero. But if there is a will, Vidal must move forward with a heavy political and legislative engineering to deploy.

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In La Plata, the leaders of the PRO conducted a thorough study of the electoral legislation and the search for alternatives to take off from the provincial elections of August 11 (PASO) and October 27 (general).

Minimum, according to "paper" who accepted Clarin and circulating among officials and legislators, Vidal should change two rules. It is a complex and complex multi-faceted maze.

• The Buenos Aires Electoral Law – 5109 – provides in its article 116 that the elections must take place between 30 and 120 days before the end of the mandates. The period ends on December 10th, which should be done between August 10th and November 10th. To unfold, in vidalist tactics, it is logical that it advances several months, preferably before the closure of the national lists, that it operates in mid-June. So that? Thus, when these polls were defined, the mayors of Buenos Aires have already voted and ordered their projects and, according to the logic of the PRO, disengage – in terms of campaign and funds – national elections. The ideal Vidal calendar would be for the vote to take place on 9 or 16 June.

• But this is not enough: even changing these deadlines, there is another "obstacle": the provincial primary law, Law 14086, requires that the Buenos Aires PASS be executed on the same day as the national PASS. This is the so-called "Néstor clause" that has its history: in 2009, the national law was pbaded and when the law of Buenos Aires was discussed, the then vice-governor, Alberto Balestrini, has cleared the date of the federal law. It is so that the law of the Senate was adopted but Kirchner who "binds" the two dates.

• Article 2 requires the simultaneity of the STEP whereas no law requires the simultaneity of the general. This extravagance would require Vidal to modify this law, but even with that, as the standard says, the STEP must be convened 4 months in advance and between the primary and the general 60 days ago, the governor should set a date for the elections in January or at the latest in February.

• Then we use another shortcut, very militant, of Jorge Macri and other intendants of Cambiemos: eliminate, "for the only time", as it was done in Catamarca, the OSP of the province. There, the margins are extensive: without primary, the general can be summoned 75 days in advance: to vote in June, Vidal has time until March. That's, they say to the government, deadline policy and elections where risks and benefits will be measured and estimated.
• But he does not finish everything. To introduce these changes into the laws, other disadvantages are generated: the ordinary period is over and if Vidal wants to push these changes to extraordinary, he must get two-thirds of the votes of the legislators to put in treatment what we know "on tables" – any initiative even if, for its approval, only a simple majority is required.

Without primaries, the general can be called 75 days in advance: vote in June and summon Vidal until March. That is to say, they say to the government, the political and electoral "deadline" where the risks and benefits of the separation of the vote will be measured and estimated.

• To the deputies, to obtain two thirds of the votes, we can negotiate with the Front in renovation of Sergio Mbada and the "Peronism ex-K" of Jose Ottavis. The political negotiation begins and there is a clue: Mbada is the promoter of the electoral development of the municipalities and, let us say by his side, would be willing to accompany the provincial in exchange for the inclusion of the single ballot voting system.

• If he wants to rely less on his partners, Vidal can look forward to starting the 2019 regular period, opening the sessions on March 1 and speeding up the processing of a project that "suspends" the STEP and extends the conditions under which you can vote. end of term – from 30 to 180 days for example – changes that could be made by simple majority. The risk is also political: impose bullfights, in the middle of an election year, a legislative change in order to improve their chances of winning.

• The whole design carries another risk. The thesis of Vidal, who weaves but saves Federico Salvai and whom Emilio Monzó said at the time, is that a first victory in the province would be a positive contribution to Macri's candidacy. But it can happen that she loses or that she wins a very close victory or that, as some offices of the elite suppose, Cristina Kirchner presents herself as candidate for the direction of the province where she takes the best measures.