Mature or Guaidó? Venezuela's armed forces are wondering who to support

When Venezuelans took to the streets this week to demand the return of democracy, they chose a date of great historical significance: January 23, the day popular protests overthrew a military dictatorship.

However, at that time, the protesters were not the only ones to have succeeded the fall of the dictator. When the army mingled with its tanks, alongside those who protested, the overthrow was consolidated.

Juan GuaidóThe 35-year-old opposition leader who was sworn in Wednesday in front of the crowds as the legitimate president of Venezuela, expects this strategy to achieve the same result as in 1958.

However, although Guaidó has gained official recognition from the United States and more than twenty countries, he remains a stateless leader. The Venezuelan military high command has publicly stated that it is maintaining its support for Nicolás Maduro as president, a setback of opposition plans aimed at getting the armed forces to break ranks and help change the country's situation, which has been heading for authoritarianism for some time.

But, in various interviews, In-service and retired army officers suggest that there is a more complex debate in the ranks; Many want Maduro to leave power and they are still badyzing how they could get there.

Some factions of defected officers have announced their intention to return from Peru, Colombia and other countries. Rebel military commanders even held secret meetings with Donald Trump's US government in 2018 to discuss plans to secure Maduro's release.

In Venezuela, the military ranks were drastically reduced by the desertion of thousands of soldiers because hyperinflation made their salaries virtually worthless. Other members of the armed forces suggest that they wish to join the Guaidó camp, but that they fear the military intelligence service who punished ruthless dissident officers.

"It is not possible to explain the atrocities that our country has experienced in the last twenty years," said Carlos Guillén Martínez, an army lieutenant who had fled the country in 2018 after having been tortured by Maduro agents. Guillén Martínez said he and others plan to return armed if the Maduro government remains in power this year.

"We are as firm about this as ever," he said. "We continue and we do not lose our north".

The crisis in Venezuela has created an untenable impbade, a country with two presidents. On Friday, January 25, Maduro expressed his willingness to meet the opposition, while Guaidó made his first public appearance since his oath and told his supporters that they should react if authorities "dared" l & # 39; remove.

Maduro and the opposition are both courting members of the armed forces, believing that they are in control. It is a family hub for armed forces that for generations have been involved in the country's politics and have negotiated power several times during the president's administration. Hugo Chavez, who was also a military man

But The current crisis is a great setback for the entire region, whose inhabitants hoped to abandon the cycle of dictatorships, coups d'etat and foreign interventions. While other Latin American countries have strengthened their democracies, in Venezuela, the Maduro government is characterized by increasing instability and uncertainty.

"This means that the only actor who can take the final step is the army," said Alejandro Velasco, a Venezuelan historian who teaches at New York University.

The discontent of the crowd that demonstrated this week against Maduro is the result of economic collapse lived during his administration. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but due to the mismanagement of the government, the value of the currency is almost zero, the vast majority of staple foods are scarce and the health system is in the process of s & # 39; collapse. More than three million people have emigrated to other countries.

The political instability that favored this economic decline is rooted in the mandate of Hugo Chávez, ancestor of Maduro. The political career of Chavez, lieutenant colonel, took flight during a coup d'etat organized in 1992. He arrived at the presidency six years later and instituted the so-called socialist revolution for the purpose to redistribute wealth among the poor of the country.

In other Latin American countries, democratic norms have finally been established, but Venezuelans chose to vote – again and again – for a leader who jumped onto the public stage while he wanted to overthrow a government by force.

In 2002, there was another coup attempt of the military state, this time with the support of the opposition and the approval of the United States, which resulted in the overthrow of Chávez for a few years. days. Later, Chavez purged the ranks of the armed forces and for years attacked the Venezuelan institutions, a strategy that diverted the country from democracy.

The purges against the army have had consequences for all the armed forces, who felt compelled to support Chávez's political force, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). There, soldiers such as Joshua Hidalgo, an army lieutenant who had started his service under Chávez's tenure, were quickly influenced and very disappointed by what he saw.

"They told us," Socialism is good, "he said," but then you see what's happening, the extreme levels of corruption in the military. "

Hidalgo said that he had been appointed to a mining area on the Brazilian border and that he had witnessed how military commanders were extorting gold miners and administering contraband consignments. # 39; gasoline.

The lieutenant suggested that in 2017 he was wanted by a group of military dissidents called the sword of God. Shortly after, he said, he was captured by intelligence agents but escaped to Brazil.

Today, he works with Guillén to recruit deserters who have left Venezuela and who wish to express their interest in returning to revolt. During the interview with Hidalgo, two of his colleagues presented a list of hundreds of names, ages, ranks and ID numbers of people who said they wanted to participate.

Among the documents, there were screenshots of what they claimed to be a WhatsApp conversation with a young cadet in Venezuela that indicates that he fears being asked to repress the most recent events.

"I will not let people shoot you," the message says. "Cadets are furious. We do not want this government"

A former US official said that these disillusioned officials, along with thousands of other members of the armed forces who have fled the country, pose a serious challenge to Maduro as they mobilize with the support of neighboring countries with right-wing governments, such as Colombia and Brazil, or if it allows them to organize themselves on their territory.

The invitation of Guaidó to the army to join his cause seems to take effect within the armed forces.

On Monday, January 21, a group of soldiers posted videos in which they swore allegiance to the Leader of the Opposition, in apparent response to their offer of amnesty for defectors. After these statements, clashes erupted on a military base in Caracas, shortly before the government claimed to have controlled a rebellion.

When Guaidó was sworn in as president on Wednesday, January 23, the military high command remained silent. Rumors were circulating that they were discussing Maduro's fate.

However, Vladimir Padrino López, army general and defense minister, spoke Thursday in public accompanied by other commanders of the country 's armed forces. He said that they supported Maduro and that it was "laughable" that Guaidó be named president.

"I need to alert the people of what this means for our sovereignty," said Padrino. "We are here to avoid a confrontation between Venezuelans."

Velasco, the historian of New York University, said that he was not surprised that the high command did not support the opposition.

In recent years, Maduro has already faced small riots by members of the armed forces. Knowing that military forces are essential to staying in power, he offered officers incentives, such as controlling parts of the legal economy or smuggling and drug smuggling routes, according to Velasco.

"After all, it's not just those who have the weapons, but also they are so deeply involved in state corruption that obtaining their support is a prerequisite for Maduro's deportation."said the historian.

The opposition has chosen to approach the intermediate echelons and hold meetings with officials to explain an amnesty law adopted by the National Assembly for those who change their support, according to an important member opposition.

This person, who requested anonymity because she does not have permission to disclose the meetings, said the officers had expressed their fear of a foreign military intervention, in which particular of the United States.

Carlos Peñaloza, a retired general now living in Miami and a former commander of the Venezuelan Armed Forces, said that in recent weeks he had been in contact with unhappy middle-ranking officers and was convinced that They had the necessary support to get Maduro out of the country, whether or not they received the support of the main commanders.

"Many alumni, lieutenants and colonels started their career before Chavez," he said, explaining why they do not owe loyalty to Maduro. "They were raised in a democracy and want to restore it."

But Peñaloza said that a Venezuelan oil embargo imposed by the United States could spur a military uprising more quickly. Venezuela's 500,000 barrels of oil sent daily to the United States is believed to be the government's main source of real revenue and one of the greatest incentives the High Command has to maintain loyalty to Maduro.

According to Peñaloza, if an embargo was applied, "Maduro would not have the money to pay them".

Copyright: The New York Times 2019 Press Office.