Why Vladimir Putin will not save Nicolás Maduro

Although Russia has been perceived as the main ally of Nicolás Maduro in his struggle to retain power after Juan Guaidó's swearing-in, several scholars argue that the Kremlin is unlikely undertake a financial or military rescue to support the regime.

This was confirmed by the Kremlin's own spokesman, Dmitry PeskovWhen you report this the government did not discuss extending financial or military badistance to keep Maduro in power.

Behind Moscow's stance, there are several reasons.

In the first place, Venezuela has a debt with Russia in the amount of $ 10 billion. In the absence of money, the scheme meets its commercial commitments by sending barrels of crude oil. But, according to a source close to PDVSA revealed in December, it would respect half of what had been agreed (300 000 barrels per day instead of 600 000).

Secondly, Russia, which is facing a moment of economic stagnation and growing social discontent, has limited funds for international campaigns.

"I see no opportunity to engage, it is too far away and the logistical capacity to carry out a substantial operation is lacking"he said Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of a Kremlin advisory committee on foreign and defense policy, he told the Wall Street Journal. "Economically, the situation in Russia is not very good right now and another long-term burden would not be welcome, " added to the American newspaper.

According to the badysis of WSJ, the crisis in Venezuela is similar to that of Ukraine and Syria for Russia. In these cases, US support for opposition forces threatened Moscow's allies, who had been buying Russian weapons for decades and opening the door for Russian investment.

Finally, according to a Russian official quoted by the president WSJ, Putin's frustration with Maduro increased after last year Russia sent a delegation of Finance Ministry officials to Caracas. with a plan to stabilize the disastrous economic situation of the Caribbean country. But this plan was rejected by the regime, which considered it too harsh and called for increased financial badistance.

All these factors led Moscow to seek a rapprochement with the opposition, especially after the dazzling victory of the opposition to the elections to the National Assembly in 2015 and the demonstrations of 2017, revealed in the WSJ Russian diplomats and leaders of the opposition.

However, Moscow still refuses to recognize Guaidó. A refusal, according to the experts, is more of a principle than a real conviction to continue to bet on the dictator.

"If they question an official of the Russian government, they will say that it is a clbadic coup headed by the United States and that their position does not make them worse. is not to save Maduro personally, but to adopt a position of principle, "said Lukyanov. "For Moscow, it is not so that a leader is expelled".