Guadió is already assessing its request for support to the International Monetary Fund

The team of the "interim" president of Venezuela, Juan Guaidó, evaluates the demand for support from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) obtain financial resources that contribute to the economic recovery strategy during its temporary management.

"We focus on the international issue (…) The goal is to mobilize resources", One of the conscious sources of the first tasks accomplished by the members of Guaidó's closest circle, who are trying to take advantage of the support given by the United States and another important group of governments around the world to the decision of the Speaker of Parliament after having declared to Maduro the usurper of the position. However, the IMF has not yet pronounced on this issue.

Of course, although the possibility of financing the Venezuelan opposition through the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund is under consideration, everything would indicate that these institutions would expect a greater international consensus for Guaidó to be recognized as legitimate president. .

For their part, the advisers of the President of the National Assembly consider also appointing a representative to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) as soon as possible and appoint directors of the main subsidiary of the Venezuelan national oil company in the United States, Citgo, as part of the strategy to obtain financial support abroad as soon as possible, according to sources added to S & P Global Platts.

In addition, Guaidó plans to introduce a new National Hydrocarbons Law, which would establish flexible fiscal and contractual conditions for projects adapted to oil prices and their investment cycles, as well as a anti-corruption law against PDVSA, added these sources.

Of the same form, a new oil and gas agency would be created, which would offer tenders for natural gas and conventional crude oil projects, Heavy and extra heavy. One source also said that, although Mr. Guaidó has not yet decided to appoint oil minister or PDVSA chief, these positions will be filled by "experienced people".

"There are people willing to do it and they are good Venezuelans, so we do not have to worry," Guaidó said.

The same day that Guaidó swore in front of hundreds of thousands of his supporters and deputies of the Congress, The head of the Inter-American Development Bank, Luis Alberto Moreno, expressed on Twitter his "willingness to work with the interim president of Venezuela."

At a press conference in a public square in Caracas, Guaidó said Friday that the nominations "will come in due time", while noting that "the IDB is an ideal place to start looking for funds with which ones to execute the country plan ".

One of his advisers' work is that, if they succeed in having Guaidó recognized by other multilateral organizations, they would even evaluate the possibility of issuing new debts in the international market, even in the middle of the world. breach in which the government of Nicolás Maduro had fallen holders of most of their obligations since the end of 2017.

"Creditors know that Venezuela can not pay its debt today, but they could negotiate with a transitional government," said one of the respondents. The team is also trying to get closer to Russia and China to ensure they recognize ongoing commitments.

"We know that the management of the public budget is a sensitive issue and that is why we focus on the protection of badets located abroad, because they belong to all Venezuelans and we want them to be properly invested. For example, we think of the country plan, "Guaidó concluded.

On the other hand, the opposition Congress, which has agreed this month to ask countries to freeze the Venezuelan government's accounts as illegitimate, will also seek to protect the country's badets abroad. A possible embargo on its creditors.

"The first thing to do is protect badets, then a more complex step"Guaidó told reporters when asked how they would implement such a measure. "A legal framework will be put in place for the use and disposal of these resources."

Trump pulls the strings to cut Maduro's plan payments

At about the same time, Maduro had said at a press conference that he was willing to continue selling oil to the United States, saying that he had broken that its diplomatic and political relations with the Donald Trump government, but not with this country.

Alongside the decisions that could be made by the interim government, the United States would work to reduce the Maduro government's revenue sources so that the Guaidó team can receive the country's oil revenues, a senior official said Thursday. in Washington.

In this sense, the State Department has already sent a document to the Federal Reserve last week to emphasize that Washington recognizes the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela as the country's chief. He must therefore be the authorized agent to control the accounts in the US banks. The next steps the White House wants to focus on are oil accounts, at the heart of the Venezuelan economy.

With the recognition of Guaidó, authorities that "legitimately make decisions about economic transactions between Venezuela and the United States are changing, which will have many consequences," said a White House official, who requested 39; anonymity.

Anyway, these transcendental changes represent uncertainty for a multiplicity of actors. "It's a mess for creditors, for employees, for everyone," said a Wall Street Journal oil industry official about the possibility that companies like PdVSA or Citgo have two directories parallel.

Therefore, according to the WSJ, the Trump government plans to use emergency decrees to pave the way and allow Guaidó to take effective control of the accounts. For the measure not to be challenged in the country's courts, the president could argue that the political crisis and oil imports are of fundamental importance to the US energy sector.

At the same time, Senator Marco Rubio, confirmed the transfer of control of the Venezuelan accounts, predicted that in the coming days, there will be more details on the future of oil-related transactions between the United States and the country of South America.

"Nearly 75% of the money that PDVSA receives (the Venezuelan national oil company) comes from crude oil sent to US refineries." What makes sense is that they continue to buy, but that the money owed must be made available to the legitimate government "of Guaidó, Rubio told Univisión.

For Venezuelan oil buyers, such as Chevron and other large companies, "One thing is clear: they can no longer send money to Maduro. ", commented at WSJ Gustavo Coronel, former president of PdVSA in the nineties.

While with the United States China is one of the main buyers of oil, it is a creditor and the oil is sent in the form of debt payment. Without the United States, which imports about 500,000 barrels a day, the regime would be flooded with no foreign currency.

A different perspective on the outcome of the crisis

The economist and director of Ecobadítica, Asdrúbal Oliveros, warns that by 2019 the economic situation will worsen and the country will be divided into two realities: one who deals with currencies and another who will suffer even more from the ravages of the crisis by trying to survive only with bolivars.

Through his Twitter account, the professional explained that, from his point of view, as a result of this, the government of Nicolás Maduro will not be broken, at least in the short term.

"I am not an optimist with an impending or short break. It's something that I see more in the medium term and that will come from Chavismo himself, "Oliveros warned, explaining that the system of control and social repression set up by the executive will allow him to stay a little longer in power.

"In the medium term, the biggest danger is to face the internal dissent that seeks to bring forth a new leadership of Chavez that will oxygenate and overcome isolation. is the biggest danger for Maduro and it does not come from the opposition, "he added.

Regarding the economic outlook, Oliveros said it would "shrink" even more and that there would be a bigger social gap. "The private sector has to adapt to this, as well as to the population," he said, while saying that "a large group will leave, as shown by specialized studies. ".

The economist regretted the warning of a scenario as disheartening in 2019, for which he said: "I hope I'm wrong and that there are imponderables (he there are always some) that allow us to forge a faster break. " However, for now, this is not something viable.

Oliveros is not alone in the negative picture. The IMF itself has recently cut its already pessimistic view of the country.

In its latest quarterly outlook, the institution headed by Christine Lagarde points out that Venezuela has destroyed half of its real gross domestic product (GDP) since 2013 due to the collapse of oil production and the deterioration in non-industry sectors. L & # 39; energy.

Already in October, the Fund had already reported that the fall of the Caribbean country's economy would have been reduced by 14% in 2017 and that it was expected that this fall would reach 18% in the end of last year plus 5% extra for this year. exercise. We have to go back to 2013 to find a year of economic growth of 1.3%. Since then, Venezuelan GDP has contracted by almost 50%.

The IMF had already included Venezuela last October in the middle of the great economic crises of the 21st century, a list dominated by countries that have suffered wars.
Then, the Fund calculated a decline in per capita GDP of 37% from 2013 to 2017, but had not yet accounted for in the calculation the collapse of the economy of the country. last year and its poor prospects.

According to estimates of the IMF's own database, it is expected to fall by 47% of GDP per capita from 2012 to 2019. If we measure what is measured in terms of current, collapse is even more important. Venezuela's GDP per capita has risen from $ 11,287 in 2012 to $ 3,100 for this year, a sinking of 73 per cent. still according to IMF forecasts.

To these data, which do nothing else to confirm that it is at the heart of a gigantic collapse of economic activity, is added inflation of the order of 10 000 000%, a general rationing of products. and an unemployment rate above 30% of the labor force.

In these conditions, "the chances of a clear and rapid recovery of Venezuela with the current government are virtually excluded. But a new administration could adopt a series of measures that would facilitate the way out of the crisis, "said economist Rafael Pampillón Olmedio, of the CEU-San Pablo University.

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