Caracas lives a tense calm | Neighborhoods are not …

From Caracas

There is a calm tension in Venezuela. The streets of Caracas are of a normality that does not correspond to the image built abroad or the radicality of announcements given in recent days. Neither the neighborhoods are under fire, nor the two governments: a so-called president without territory nor ability to exercise power can only affect social networks, diplomatic halls and diplomatic notes. opinion of those who support Juan Guaidó.

The weekend was like a reorganization of positions, a maturation of international variables, a saving of time in the national framework. The right organized bademblies on Saturday and on Sunday launched its appeal to address the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb) – the opposition took the word Bolivariana – to promulgate the so-called law of violence. Amnesty and Constitutional Guarantees of Military and Civilians The law was approved by the National Assembly and declared illegal by the Supreme Court of Justice, but legality is not the problem today when the law is approved by the National Assembly and declared illegal by the Supreme Court of Justice; it is an attempted coup d'etat.

This law proposes two acts: to pardon those who committed the acts of violence from 1999 to today and to give the green light to those who would lead them from now on. The right proclaims itself president and grants future authorizations.

The central objective is the Fanb, axis around which articulate the main speculations. How to add it to the current plan, that is, how to make sure that a sector directs the action of the force. The relations of the right with the Fanb are contradictory: on one side, they have publicly denigrated, attacked with vials of feces in the street and weapons of war in their barracks – in 2017 – at the same time that they were called to follow the different plans of non-recognition of Nicolás Maduro. They know that they need them, both to get the result of the badault and to maintain the future order that they would try to impose.

While the right was gaining time, the painting continued to develop internationally. The threats have continued to multiply, as suggested by John Bolton, US National Security Advisor, who said: "Any violence and intimidation directed against American diplomatic personnel, the democratic leader of Venezuela or the United States. 39; National Assembly would constitute a serious aggression to the legality and will be followed by a significant response ".

The United States has also recognized a diplomatic representative of the parallel virtual government, Carlos Vecchio, a fugitive of Venezuelan justice, leader of Voluntad Popular, the party to which Guaidó belongs. Voluntad Popular is the most linked force to the country's armed / paramilitary groups, and Vecchio to a member of his party involved in the dismemberment of a woman in 2015.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Israeli government would recognize Guaidó. The bloc led by the United States eventually gathered all its parts: France, Germany, Spain, Great Britain, Israel, Canada, Lima Group without Mexico. In the case of the countries of the European Union, they claimed that if there were no elections in eight days – which are now seven – they will recognize Guaidó.

"Nobody can give us an ultimatum.If anyone wants to leave Venezuela, let him go," said Maduro during a day marked by Fanb military exercises in different parts of the country ( see Appendix). There will be no elections.

The different pieces seem positioned on the board. He is waiting for the next steps that he will undertake on the basis of a plan that does not specify how he will do what he announces. What Guaidó summarizes in three phases: "cessation of the usurpation, transitional government, free elections", and refuses all the dialogues – although they existed and ended up recognizing them as a product of the presented evidence by the government. How does the cessation of the usurpation materialize? Without this, it is difficult to imagine a true transitional government and a call for elections. Everything is 2.0 until now.

In addition, it is necessary to wait for the badessments made by the United States after the Assembly of the Organization of American States and the United Nations Security Council. Did you know that you would not reach the required majority? Are you ready to take the next steps without having this agreement? He will look at the facts.

The strategy vis-à-vis Venezuela does not seem to be unanimous within the democratic and republican forces. Guaidó is portrayed in several media as "leader of the opposition" and not as he would have been told, that is, "acting president". In addition to virtual president is also ridiculous topic in social networks, with labels on social networks like #GuaidoChalenge. Guaidó, secondary image on the right, has been put in this role because it can be sacrificed as part of the strategy? It will also be seen in the evolution of events.

The weekend is over with more questions than certainties. Meanwhile, Venezuela continued with deep-rooted normality, President Maduro's actions in front of youth and Fanb, Chavismo mobilizations in various parts of the country. What is hidden behind the tense calm?