What are the possible scenarios for Venezuela's future?

The final resolution of Venezuela's multidimensional crisis now raises more serious questions than ever before about Nicolás Maduro's ability to cope with a situation marked by strong international pressure, a mobilized society and a lack of transparency. emergence of Juan Guaidó as a political alternative.

In this direction, the military forces are the piece of the puzzle that, indistinctly deepening this scenario, are the only ones that seem to have the real ability to distort the political future of the country.

The reorientation of the military support is, for the moment, the only alternative so that Juan Guaidó aspires to reach the palace of Miraflores.

This is why, considering the natural deformation that the variables considered can suffer because of the temporal proximity of the facts, the political destiny of Venezuela currently offers two scenarios:

Against all odds, Maduro follows

"I announced to the country the formation of more than 50,000 popular defense units in all neighborhoods and cities of the national territory, let's go, militias, organize the city to serve as a reinforcement and complement to the victory of our forces armed forces, "said one official. Mature who in recent days traveled and showed all possible military support.

If the armed forces support him, Nicolás Maduro is continuing his second term recently inaugurated as President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

The reality is never so simple, but the truth is that now, this seems to be the main alternative. What would change then? As a concession to the local and international situation, legislative elections could be put forward, which the president himself acknowledged to be ready to do.

The opposite seems to be the case of presidential elections. Not only because they took place less than a year ago (May 20, 2018), but also because it would be from Maduro the tacit recognition that the elections were fraudulent and, therefore, also its inauguration.

The reading of the armed forces at a time when there appear to be two presidents recognized and / or denounced according to the country considered (with however greater intensity in the block led by the United States), and a society crossed by a crisis without precedents, can also undermine the room for maneuver on a possible call for elections.

What to do with Guaidó, whether or not to allow the presence of international organizations in monitoring the new elections and their impact on the results in question are the main enigmas that remain to be determined in this first hypothesis.

The armed forces say enough

The loss of support from the military sector in Maduro could lead to a new call for elections (more likely) and / or the possible support of Juan Guaidó (less likely).

Under this alternative, the worst possible scenario for the future of the country would be that the decision is not homogeneous and that the sectors within the armed forces are divided, potentially tragic event as it could lead to a kind of civil war.

On the other hand, the pressures to call new elections and the acceptance of results are, in this scenario, the best possible destination.

What will be the future of Maduro, the consequences of a possible law of amnesty and the considerations of the allied bloc (Russia and Iran, among others) on the exit of "son of Chávez "will be in this case the questions to be solved.

The truth is that at present, any forecast in Venezuela would seem imprudent. Daily trips with separate chapters and escalating demonstrations as well as international pressure are unpredictable.