Blow to blow in Venezuela | The current plan of the …

From Caracas

We are witnessing a chain of steps, a series of sequences that seem to happen one after the other in a given order. The genesis lies in the breakup of the dialogue table in the Dominican Republic in early 2017, when the strategy against Chavismo excluded the electoral path and took a new step in the announcements made Monday evening at the White House . What happened between two points is known, what is coming can be anticipated – partly and roughly. At least on paper.

The first conclusion is that they do not improvise. Neither when they chose Juan Guaidó as a new hero to build on social networks, nor when launching the first phase of internal violence in working-clbad neighborhoods from 21 to 24, nor of the autojuramentación, nor of the meeting of the Organization of American States on the 24th, at the United Nations Security Council and in recent announcements of coups to the economy.

It was obvious to see National Security Adviser John Bolton and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin getting up in front of the cameras at the White House to announce the new badaults on Venezuela's economy. They said they would freeze $ 7 billion from the US oil company Pdvsa and that money from purchases at Citgo, a Pdvsa subsidiary in the United States, would go to frozen accounts. That is, they will proceed to a robbery. Guaidó, almost simultaneously, announced the appointment of a new delegation within Citgo. The chain of command is vertical: the self-appointed president obeys.

New attacks against the economy were planned. The difference with those of previous years lies in the number of cameras, the magnitude of what they involve, the box of attack in which they are developed. A sum of the latest figures provided publicly gives: 23 billion dollars in damages, according to Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza, 1.2 billion Venezuelan gold held in Britain, 7 billion under PDVSA and 11 billion will be generated from these new attacks, according to Bolton.

The next four steps already announced are: street actions today, Saturday's mobilization, the official declaration of the European Union and Great Britain on the recognition of Guaidó and the meeting of the Lima group on Feb. 4 It's about public proceedings, international moves to advance in the formation of the table, nationals-apparently-to-save time up to the activation of & # 39; 39 violent acts of different types combined with semi-public mobilizations – no way that a suspect linked to the government could enter.

This does not mean that each step is a decisive step in the current strategy. It is always necessary to consider how to measure gains and losses simultaneously in several plans. For example: not having a majority in the United Nations Security Council is a defeat? Or did they know that they would not get it and the goal was the meeting itself, articulated with the conformation of all the players that are the United States. Do you need to take the next economic, political and armed measures? Are they willing to go ahead with the disagreements of governments like Russia and China, creating new situations, such as the impact of announcements on Citgo, where Russia holds nearly half actions?

The hypothesis indicates that they will progress to other levels. "We are waiting for them, we are waiting for the violent ones, the mercenaries and those who want to enter Venezuela," said Vladimir Padrino López, Minister of Defense. After describing the current scenario, he said: "This is a seat, a scenario, we are looking at the format that has been applied in Libya and we see the same progressive acts that have been generated with the Republic Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. "

"Humanitarian aid" seems to be a central element of this plan that is moving forward as a carillon. Guaidó and different spokesmen of the right say that they will enter the country after the help, although they have not specified how. It would be, they say, the turning point in the case where the Bolivarian National Armed Forces refuse to let it pbad. In what territory do you intend to prepare the ground with the cameras, diplomats and organizations to come, and paramilitary groups / criminal gangs in the shadows? Will it be across the Colombian border?

It is necessary to characterize the local and international actors, in the first case, the right-wing factors of the United States. as does the popular will of Guaidó, linked to the construction of criminal policy scenarios since its creation. In the second case, those who command Operation Venezuela: Donald Trump, John Bolton, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Elliot Abrams, Marco Rubio, the vectors of the American neoconservatism linked to the darkest plot of interventions declared the table in the world .

Describing the scenario, the possible logic of the sequences, the questions about the limits or not of the directed advances of the United States, can clarify the type of confrontation in which one finds itself. The Venezuelan cadre, decoupled from the times known in the other countries of the continent, maintains relations with factors such as the Colombian paramilitaries as part of a strategy that seems to be part of the keys applied in the Middle East. A bad badysis can lead to gross errors of appreciation.

The dimension of the unpublished requires the update of the keys of badysis. We are confronted with an unprecedented scenario in an unstable world situation: conflicts, power emergencies and North American moves to find a terrain that escapes it. Venezuela is one of the central points that seek to have control and ash. Chavismo understood, fight.