Unprecedented pressure, the point of inflection that left Maduro on the ropes

WASHINGTON.- Until recently, mentioning

Venezuela

there was talk of "paralysis" or "dead end crisis". The rise of the opponent

Juan Guaidó

this generated a pause. We are now talking about a "turning point" and the first conversations around the "next day" are breaking out. Plunged into a fierce humanitarian crisis, Venezuela was at the entrance of a political transition. Unprecedented international pressure, mbadive demonstrations in the streets and the strengthening of the president in charge seem to have left the government of

Nicolás Maduro

at the edge of the fall.

"The Berlin Wall is collapsing in Latin America," said Julio Borges, Guaidó's ambbadador to the Lima group, and one of Maduro's critics exiled to the United States, who has been trying for years to reach this stage.

In Washington, the impression that the time of the turn has arrived has been almost unanimous in recent days. The most optimistic evoke plans for "the next day", convinced that there is no turning back and that the departure of Maduro is imminent. Others, more cautious, warn that the situation is still very volatile, fragile, plagued by risks and that Maduro can cling to power. The main fear in the mind of all: a bloodbath.

"Anything can happen, everything is unpredictable and it worries many people," said Michael Matera, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Matera believes that Venezuela has faced the best opportunity in recent years to take a political turn. Maduro is weaker and the opposition, reinforced, described.

"We are at a different time, it does not mean that Maduro can not stay longer, but I think we are at a turning point," he said.

One of the pillars of the break was the international pressure. One after the other, the United States, Canada, the major Latin American countries – including Argentina, Brazil and Colombia -, several European powers, Israel and Australia have joined in recent days the Guaidó government. The "corralito" that Donald Trump's government imposed on PDVSA's revenues – "the nuclear sanction", as some have called it, has stifled the ruined finances of the regime. And to this was added the turnstile that had already been imposed in recent months, in the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Lima group. In fact, the European Parliament appointed Guaidó as president in charge this week.

"The region has lived up to the situation, the Lima Group played a fundamental role and Argentina was one of the leaders of this group," Matera said.

The White House followed the direction of the Lima group and exerted growing pressure. The United States wants to avoid a bigger crisis in the region. Colombia, a country that most Venezuelans have received, is a strategic partner of Washington. For Trump, security is a priority and the president has made it clear that he wants to put an end to the "caravans" of migrants from Central American countries hit by narcotics.

International pressure is however far from unanimous. Maduro still has the unwavering support of Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and several Caribbean countries. Some governments have denounced, like Maduro, a "coup d'etat". Mexico, Uruguay and the United Nations reiterated their position by advocating for "dialogue", despite past failures. And Russia and China gave him financial oxygen. But those who follow the reality of Caracas believe that it is now more likely that Moscow and Beijing drop the hand of Maduro. Nevertheless, this is one of the unknowns.

The other pillar of the point of inflection was the internal pressure. For the first time in a long time, the opposition joined the leader, Guaidó. And people have shown their boredom with the biggest protests in the streets for years.

For Michael Camilleri, director of the Inter-American Dialogue, on January 23, when Venezuelans took to the streets and Guaidó swore as president in charge, he marked the break.

"That day was an excellent test of whether Guaidó was important to the international community or to someone whom the Venezuelans considered a leader," Camilleri said. "The answer of that day was clearly yes," he concluded.

But Camilleri is cautious in stating that the transition is far from "inevitable". Although he thought it was "very possible," he warned that it remained to be seen what the army would do, Maduro's main supporter. To retain power – and try to keep it, as for example Bashar al-Assad in Syria – Maduro must maintain the loyalty of security forces, find an alternative source of income and a buyer for the oil that he sent in the United States, and face the international offensive with a handful of allies. It does not seem easy. Camilleri points out that among these elements, the troops decide to "make an important decision".

"The military should not overthrow Maduro, but at least they must stay on the sidelines and let the process unfold," said Camilleri. "If the army and security forces at least abstain from widespread repression, Guaidó can continue to strengthen its domestic support, bring people to the streets and strengthen international pressure against Maduro, which can be a fight that Maduro does not lead, I can win, "he added.

Camilleri believes that although the possibility of a transition to democracy is much greater, it is also important to note that there is significant violence that could result in a bloodbath. Once again, he insisted that everything depended on what the security forces would do if they received a repressive order.

Matera thinks that the troops will not lift up arms against the people but will at the same time recognize the risk of a military conflict or that there is "more violence on the streets". And sums up in one sentence a vision that has gained strength over the past few days: "I think it's now a matter of time."