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The Cuban dictatorship knows that it is identified as the center of transnational organized crime that holds political power in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia. He knows that the dictatorship in Venezuela is lost. He knows that the next battle for freedom and democracy will take place in Cuba because Venezuela is its last external trench. Cuba controls the elements that only force their dictator in Venezuela and all indications are that he made the decision to occupy the strategic position until the Nicolás Maduro immolation..
Venezuela has a new legitimate and legal government with Juan Guaidó legally sworn in as transitional president with the close support of 90% of its population, the recognition of most countries of the world, new ambbadadors accepted in host countries , with the control of growing economic flows of Venezuelan oil, with the support of the United States and most of the countries of the Americas, the Organization of American States, the European Parliament and most importantly with reason.
Under these conditions, any government or political leader would have already negotiated or negotiate an exit, but Nicolás Maduro, the dictator Castro-Chavez of Venezuela, does NOT, because its decisions have nothing to do with the interests of the people Venezuelan. Maduro meets the interests of the Cuban dictatorship of Castro to whom he owes the power and for which he is controlled and directed since always. The extreme permanence of the dictatorship in Venezuela is determined by a foreign power called Cuba.
In addition to the loss of vital economic income for their survival, the Cuban dictatorship loses control of Venezuela:
1.- The center of the most important international influence that has allowed it to develop in international organizations such as the UN;
2.- The most important contact and support center for terrorism of Islamic and world origin;
3.- The most important official center of drug trafficking that has built and operates with cocaine from the FARC of Colombia and the unions of cocaleros from Evo Morales of Bolivia;
4.- Protection, logistics and training center for criminal forces such as FARC, ELN and others who threaten Colombia, Ecuador and other countries ;
5.- The geopolitical point where the largest number of Cuban forces abroad are concentrated to-date; and much more than connoisseurs can add.
In Castroist badysis, an agreed withdrawal of dictator Maduro would give a quick and relatively easy victory to the United States and its declared enemies of the Lima group and the European Parliament, aggravating and accelerating the crises already under way under the dictatorships of Nicaragua, Bolivia and Cuba itself, where public reaction is growing. Therefore, his strategy is to expand and resist Venezuela at any cost.
The resistance and permanence of the dictator at all costs are the model with which the Castro regime has been in power for 60 years and its result is the best guarantee to convince its operator in Venezuela. There is no reason to change at the moment, but if Maduro took power and keeps it practically since the death of Hugo Chávez with this radicalized system, in which there is no political cost they are not willing to badume. It is the ruthless application of the most extreme criminal mechanisms: wrongful imprisonment, torture, crimes, bribes, extortion, exile, humanitarian crisis, badbadination of reputation, control of the press, false news, virtually everything .
The longer the forced stay of dictator Maduro will be long, Castro hopes to have more chances that their international accomplices (because protecting crime is a complicity) manage to open a "dialogue", to manipulate certain "elections" or to promote "action "humanitarian" keep Maduro, or something to "distend" and then cheat again. Saving time is objective and the means are simply, including the threats and destabilization of the democratic governments that support Guaidó.
When the Venezuelan dictator finally withdrew, it would be preferable, in the Castroist logic, to reach this point with the immolation of Nicolás Maduro, because they need a story of "victim of imperialism", which would serve them also during to slow down or delay for a time the battle for freedom and democracy in Cuba by international propaganda.
* Lawyer and political scientist. Director of the Inter-American Institute for Democracy
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